Thursday, 28 January 2016

Re: {LONGTERMINVESTORS} Research Reports extracts & summaries - Thread

HSBC on Maruti
* Downgrade to Hold from Buy, Cut target to `4300 from `5000
* Miss led by higher discounts, employee costs and inventory correction
* Margin miss was disappointing in light of commodity tailwinds
* Premium valuations unable to absorb any further negative surprises
* Cut estimates by 8%/12% for FY17 and FY18; target multiple to 20x from 21x

BOFA ML on Glenmark Pharma
* Q3 results were a miss on all fronts
* Miss led by poor operational performance and higher tax rates
* Lower than expected sales across most geographies esp Europe and Latam

Citi on Guj Pipavav Port
* Maintain Buy, Target `206
* Volume quite encouraging especially after loss of two services in 2Q
* Liquid cargo also picked up but bulk disappointed in the quarter
* Valuation has become reasonable; Multiple at historic average of 15x
* Any uptick in volumes in FY17 on low base of FY16 will be a catalyst

Credit Suisse on Sun Pharma
* Novartis mentions that it will not launch Authorised Generic for Gleevec
* Move could provide additional $150 mn cash flow during exclusivity period
* Expect price erosion of 30 - 40% vs 40 - 50% assumed earlier
* Gleevec will remain a four player market in the absence of AG
* Lower price erosion at 70-75% post exclusivity period
* 2-3% accretion to FY18 consensus EPS for Sun Pharma

CLSA on ICICI Bank
* Maintains BUY; TP cut to `320 from `375
* Maintains Buy as valuations remain attractive
* Earnings below estimate, Asset quality disappoints
* Credit costs drive earnings cut; Slippages likely to stay high in 4Q as well 
* High slippages to push up gross NPLs by +70% YoY during FY16CL
* Healthy growth in CASA to support loan growth

CLSA on Maruti
* Maintain BUY; TP cut to `5050 from `5,700
* Profit missed estimates by 23%; big margins miss witnessed
* Margins contracted due to higher discounts 
* Impact of large inventory reduction, rise in royalty & higher repair expenses in Gurgaon plant
* Margins should bounce back in 4q but stronger yen will hurt in fy17 
* Maruti likely to be capacity constrained in FY17 
* Cut FY17-18CL volumes by 2-4%, factoring in FY17 capacity constraints

Credit Suisse on Vedanta
* Maintain Outperform; TP cut to `87 from `115
* In line quarter; aluminium costs controls encouraging 
* CPP conversion clears way for smelter ramp up
* Higher depreciation & lower other income resulted in lower PAT
* Vedanta maintained its EBITDA/t through cost reductions

Citi on Maruti
* Maintain Neutral, Target `4465
* 2Q-end inventory at the factory level was much higher ~40k vehicles
* 80-100bps impact on the margins due to this inventory fluctuation
* Weak overall demand environment will result in elevated discount levels
* High competitive intensity would result in deterioration in the pricing environment

Credit Suisse on Titan 
* Maintain Neutral; TP raised to `370 from `360
* Strong recovery in jewellery sales as GHS returns; see challenges in 4Q
* PAN regulations having higher than anticipated negative impact
* Watches had a very weak quarter as sales growth was muted
* Mgmt. maintains caution on jewellery despite of GHS

BofA ML on Info Edge
* Cut target by 5% to `1000, Maintain Buy
* Net income missed estimates on back of one off expenses, higher employee expenses
* Margin and revenue improvement expected due to low marketing expenses at real estate 
* Expect recruitment revenue to pick up if non-IT fields like finance, infra pick up

BofA ML on ICICI Bank 
* Cut target to `315 from `370, Maintain Buy
* Higher than estimated provisions on back of pro-active asset quality clean up
* RBI related provisioning comprised almost two-thirds of total provisions 
* Expected higher credit costs in FY17, residual stress of ~`90bn

Morgan Stanley on Bharti Airtel
* Maintain Underweight, target price at `300
* Strong data growth, Telemedia growth and Africa biz growth were key positives 
* Plans to merge Bangladesh biz with Axiata could reverse losses which is major positive 
* Pressure on tariffs, increase in net debt were biggest negatives for Bharti

Credit Suisse on Dabur
* Maintain Neutral; TP cut to `270 from `305
* Facing multiple headwinds; competition a long term worry 
* Pressure on Chawyanprah & honey from competition like Patanjali 
* Expect Middle East business to face pressure in near term
* Juice supply Nepal issue may see full recovery in 1QFY17
* Namaste business grew in strong double digits
* Margin expansion healthy but unlikely to be a further tailwind

 

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