Wednesday, 26 October 2016

Please Money times and Smart Investment

  

Rajesh Desai <stockdesai@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:44AM +0530

I was never allowed to do my job: Mistry in letter to Tata board
<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/shocked-cyrus-mistry-says-removal-unparalleled-terms-board-proceedings-as-invalid-illegal/articleshow/55058979.cms>18
Minutes ago

"The sudden action and lack of explanation has led to all manner of
speculation and has done my and the group's reputation immeasurable harm,"
he said.

--
CA. Rajesh Desai

Rajesh Desai <stockdesai@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:38AM +0530

ITC | HUL | HDFC | Hero Motocorp | Bharti Airtel | Axis Bank | Ashok
Leyland | Asian Paints | Shemaroo | IFB Agro | IDFC Bank | KSB Pumps | MCX
| State Bank Of Mysore | Crompton Consumer | Bharat Bijlee and PI
Industries are stocks, which are in the news today



*Here are stocks that are in news today:*

*Results today*: HUL
<http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/personalcare/hindustanunilever/HU>

, ITC
<http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/cigarettes/itc/ITC>

, HDFC
<http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-housing/housingdevelopmentfinancecorporation/HDF>

, Hero Motocorp
<http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/auto-23wheelers/heromotocorp/HHM>

, Dabur India
<http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/personalcare/daburindia/DI>

, Jubilant Foodworks
<http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/miscellaneous/jubilantfoodworks/JF04>

, Just Dial, Exide Industries, JSW Energy, Canara Bank, Syndicate Bank,
Ajanta Pharma, Cadila Healthcare, Coromandel International, Cummins India,
Dalmia Bharat, IIFL Holdings, Raymond, State Bank Of Travancore, Thomas
Cook, Torrent Pharmaceuticals







Bharti Airtel



Q2 QoQ

-Consolidated net profit at Rs 1,460.7 crore versus Rs 1,462 crore

-Consolidated total income at Rs 24,651.5 crore versus Rs 25546.5 crore

-Consolidated EBITDA at Rs 9,466.2 crore versus Rs 9591.3 crore

-Consolidated EBITDA margin at 38.4 percent versus 37.5 percent



PI Industries



Q2

-Net profit up 77.9 percent at Rs 101.4 crore versus Rs 57 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 19.9 percent at Rs 571.9 crore versus Rs 476.8 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA up 53.2 percent at Rs 127.9 crore versus Rs 83.5 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 22.4 percent versus 17.5 percent (YoY)



Bharat Bijlee



Q2

-Net profit at Rs 8.4 crore versus Rs 0.7 crore (YoY)

-Total income at Rs 143.6 crore versus Rs 133.6 crore (YoY)



Crompton Consumer Q2

-Net profit at Rs 55 crore versus Rs 92 crore (QoQ)

-Total income at Rs 890 crore versus Rs 1,121 crore (QoQ)



Axis Bank



Q2

-Net profit down 83.1 percent at Rs 319 crore versus Rs 1,915.6 crore (YoY)

-Provisions at Rs 3,623 crore versus Rs 707 crore (YoY)

-Gross NPA at 4.17 percent versus 2.54 percent (QoQ)

-Net NPA at 2.02 percent versus 1.08 percent (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at Rs 16,378 crore versus Rs 9,553 crore (QoQ)



M&M Financial



Q2

-Net profit at Rs 94.8 versus Rs 146.2 crore (YoY)

-NII at Rs 783 crore versus Rs 765.8 crore (YoY)



State Bank Of Mysore Q2

-Net loss at Rs 183.5 crore versus profit of Rs 132 crore (YoY)

-NII down 14.5 percent at Rs 450 crore versus Rs 526.3 crore (YoY)

-Gross NPA at 13.01 percent versus 7.83 percent (QoQ)

-Net NPA at 8.43 percent versus 4.65 percent (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at Rs 7,173.6 crore versus Rs 4,323.1 crore (QoQ)

-Net NPA at Rs 4,411.6 crore versus Rs 2,480 crore (QoQ)

-Provisions at Rs 518.2 crore versus Rs 1,038 crore (QoQ) & versus Rs 116.4
crore (YoY)



Ortel Comm



Q2

-Net profit down 10.7 percent at Rs 2.5 crore versus Rs 2.8 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 17.2 percent at Rs 53.7 crore versus Rs 45.8 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA up 33.3 percent at Rs 15.2 crore versus Rs 11.4 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 28.3 percent versus 24.9 percent (YoY)



IFB Agro



Q2

-Net profit up 21.9 percent at Rs 8.9 crore versus Rs 7.3 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 47.6 percent at Rs 273.4 crore versus Rs 185.2 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA at up 0.8 percent Rs 13.3 crore versus Rs 13.2 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 13.3 percent versus 13.2 percent (YoY)



Kokuyo Camlin



Q2

-Net loss at Rs 3.7 crore versus loss of Rs 0.6 crore (YoY)

-Total income down 0.2 percent at Rs 129.6 crore versus Rs 129.8 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA loss at Rs 0.7 crore versus EBITDA profit of Rs 3.1 crore (YoY)



IDFC Bank



Q2

-Net profit up 46.5 percent at Rs 387.7 crore versus Rs 264.7 crore (QoQ)

-NII down 0.7 percent at Rs 495.6 crore versus Rs 499 crore (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at 5.96 percent versus 6.09 percent (QoQ)

-Net NPA at 2.44 percent versus 2.32 percent (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at Rs 3,219.7 crore versus Rs 3,030 crore (QoQ)

-Net NPA at Rs 1,271.4 crore versus Rs 1,110.6 crore (QoQ)



KSB Pumps



Q2

-Net profit down 56 percent at Rs 7.4 crore versus Rs 16.8 crore (YoY)

-Total income down 13 percent at Rs 161.6 crore versus Rs 185.8 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA down 56.4 percent at Rs 12.7 crore versus Rs 29.1 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 7.9 percent versus 15.7 percent (YoY)



L&T Finance



Q2

-Consolidated net profit at Rs 248 crore

-Consolidated NII at Rs 934.3 Crore



MCX Q2

-Net profit up 23 percent at Rs 37.6 crore versus Rs 30.6 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 7 percent at Rs 65.2 crore versus Rs 61.2 crore (YoY)



Shemaroo Q2

-Consolidated net profit up 29.2 percent at Rs 14.6 crore versus Rs 11.3
crore (YoY)

-Consolidated total income up 21.4 percent at Rs 113.5 crore versus Rs 93.5
crore (YoY)



Shakti Pumps



Q2

-Net profit up 5.9 percent at Rs 3.6 crore versus Rs 3.4 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 9.1 percent at Rs 75.4 crore versus Rs 69.1 crore (YoY)



Royal Orchid Hotels



Q2

-Net profit up 35 percent at Rs 2.7 crore versus Rs 2 crore (YoY)

-Total income down 18.6 percent at Rs 19.2 crore versus Rs 21 crore (YoY)



Bharti Airtel

-Board approves exploring monetisation of a 'significant' stake in Bharti
Infratel

-The board has authorized a committee of directors to evaluate potential
options

Rajesh Desai <stockdesai@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:36AM +0530

*Contents in today's MORNING INSIGHT*

¾ *Economic News*

¾ Corporate News



*Result Update:** Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd*

Highest ever volume at 43 mn tonnes (19% YoY) reflects (1) strong growth
in containers and crude, with recovery of coal volumes; (2) Strong
contribution from subsidiary ports (3) healthy consolidated EBITDA margin,
(4) higher non-recurring income and rationalization of interest cost that
boosted PAT. The company's good FY17 volume growth guidance, led by
commissioning of new ports, new cargo sourcing and market share gains, is a
positive. Management also intends to reverse the Loans & Advances of Rs 25
bn extended till date in FY17 and we see this as healthy corporate
governance from the company. Broadly, we estimate volume to grow at 12%
CAGR over FY16 to FY18E driven by volumes at Dhamra, Hazira, Dahej and
container volumes at Mundra leading to earnings CAGR of 16% with ROE of
20%. Recommend* ACCUMULATE* (from BUY) with an increased TP of 340 (from Rs
305)



*Result Update:** Asian Paints Ltd*

¾ Low double digit volume growth in the decorative paint segment, improved
performance in the industrial and auto OEM segment has led to revenue of Rs
42.3 bn (+12% YoY), but higher raw material cost has translated into lower
Ebidta margin of 16.9% (-320 bps QoQ) and lower earnings of Rs 4.95 bn
(-10% QoQ) vs. our expectation of Rs 5.5 bn. Over-seas performance is a
mixed bag, while home improvement segment (Sleek International) continue to
disappoint despite receiving attention and investments from the parent. We
interpret the performance as weak from a market leader in a competitive
market with stable demand environment, especially when the stock is trading
at high valuation.

¾ We continue to value the stock at 45x FY18E EPS (premium to medium sized
paint companies) and arrive at a TP of Rs 1075 (from Rs 1125) and recommend
*SELL* (from Accumulate)



*Result Update:** Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd*

The quarter was better than expected due to better than expected export
formulations growth. ALPM had a strong quarter last year due to an
exclusive opportunity (gAbilify) and was booking certain profit share until
Q1FY17 for gAbilify. The opportunity was to cease from Q2FY17, however
management indicated that some spillover has continued in the current
quarter and will subside going ahead. Certain shift of US products from
partner to own front end as well as certain drug shortage opportunity also
aided export formulations growth. We have been optimistic on ALPM and
continue to believe that it is one of the best bets in the mid cap pharma
space. We tweak our EPS estimates for FY18 higher by 7% to factor better
export formulations revenues driven by better traction in front end
launches. We maintain our *ACCUMULATE *rating on Alembic Pharma with a
revised price target of Rs 725 (Rs 700 earlier), 24x FY18E EPS of Rs 30.3
(earlier Rs 28.3).



*Result Update:** Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd*

Dr. Reddy's results were ahead of expectations on both revenues as well as
PAT front. Revenues (including other operating income) came in at Rs
36.2bn, down 9% YoY. EBIDTA margins were at 17.8% for the quarter, down
1082bps YoY but up 543bps QoQ. PAT was down ~59% YoY. We have been cautious
on DRL due to increasing competition in its key injectable products (40% of
US revenues) and lack of big ticket launches. US, which is the largest
revenue contributor at 48% to revenues has been the key driver in the past
few years but going ahead the outlook looks weak. Moreover, the impending
compliance issues at its plants will further delay the launch pipeline for
DRL. Hence, we continue to maintain a cautious stance on DRL. We maintain
our estimates for FY17E as well as FY18E. Maintain *SELL* with a target
price of Rs 2770.



*Result Update:** Geometric Ltd*

Geometric's 2Q numbers were above our expectations. Revenues grew by 3.7%
QoQ in USD terms and margins were up by about 400bps QoQ to 21.05%, on back
of improved operating metrics. The order booking during the quarter was at
$15.05mn v/s $15.48mn in previous quarter, $14.5mn in 4Q and $15.2mn in 3Q
(highest in past 14/15 quarters). Geometric has completed restructuring the
delivery organization, which is yielding margin benefits. It is now looking
at streamlining and strengthening the sales organization and processes to
improve the topline growth and make it more predictable. We believe
Geometric is on the right path and the acquisition by HCLT should result in
more predictability and sustainability of revenue growth.





*Bulk deal*

*Gainers & losers*

*Forthcoming events *

Rajesh Desai <stockdesai@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:35AM +0530

*Dear All,*



*Confidence cracks! Consolidation likely on Street*



*Confidence is silent, Insecurities are loud – Anonymous*



The number of measures taken by the Narendra Modi government are yet to
reflect in the World Bank's ease of doing business ranking this year as
India managed to move just one rank higher. Citing that India has embarked
on an ambitious reform path, the World Bank did list some of the
developments the country has undertaken. Slippages were seen in areas of
payment of taxes and enforcing contracts; factors which foreign investors
pay attention to. Corporate India is expecting the effective tax rate to
come down in the Budget. Ahead of the US presidential elections, consumer
confidence of Americans hit a three-month low as the general feeling is
jobs are hard to come by. The US market saw some consolidation and ended in
the red. The outlook is a weak start. Action in the last few sessions can
be best described as consolidation. The Tata's board room battle saw many
of the group's stocks end in the red. HDFC, ITC, Hero MotoCorp and HUL
results are on tap. Investors will remain cautious ahead of the F&O expiry
on Thursday.



*India Strategy*



*Diwali Dhamaka: Lots of Juice left*



The strong rally in Indian equities, having unfolded over the last eight
months, has surprised many naysayers. First, market multiples inched
higher, leading many to cite valuations trading above historical levels as
a reason for concern on the market. More recently, the earnings outlook
appears to improve albeit on a lower base. Gradual rise in demand, improved
economic outlook, lower raw material cost and deleveraging exercise coupled
with fall in finance costs for corporate India augur well for now. While
the noises suggesting a market fall grow louder, we believe there is still
a lot of juice left in stocks. The reasons are many but let's dwell briefly
on a few:



The domestic economy is on a stronger footing with the highest GDP growth
among large countries. Government spending on infrastructure is
satisfactory even as it has successfully curtailed the fiscal deficit,
current account is tipped to see a surplus in certain quarters after a
decade, normal monsoons are helping matters as is the low commodity price
regime, key reforms like GST are being auctioned, inflation is under
control and interest rates have softened. India has done well to duly
acknowledge its asset quality issues and the new RBI Governor has promised
to focus on NPA resolution. Recent sale of assets as seen in case of RCom,
Jaiprakash Group, Videocon and Essar is a big plus.



A market correction is always around the corner following every mega run
up, but that's precisely what presents a great buying opportunity.
Predicting an outright global ruin is invariably impossible but we may yet
be in for a lot more trials by global Central Bankers before they
acknowledge and arrest the excesses they have themselves created. As of
now, the ECB and BOJ have continued with their easy monetary policies. The
US Fed is yet again contemplating raising rates but their next move is
anybody's guess. For all we know, they may be compelled to reverse their
position after 12-15 months. In any case, the Fed's next rate hike, whether
in December or early next year, is largely discounted in the current stock
prices. Just like the previous hike, the next one may provoke a knee jerk
reaction post announcement. Ditto for the outcome of the US election.
Clinton or Trump, the market reaction (positive or negative) will be
necessarily short-lived.



With half of the developed world's sovereign bond yields at below 1% (1/3rd
bonds trade at negative yields), the global cost of capital has touched
historic lows. In an environment where positive return is hard to come by,
growth markets like India will command a premium valuation. Likewise for
the domestic investor, India's Fixed Income yields have come off
significantly, not offering sizeable return anymore. Alternate investments
like Property is fraught with risks of inventory pile-up and trust issues.
Clearly, Equities offer a better alternative. Indian equities (Nifty)
presently trade at around 17x FY18 EPS and the market will soon start
factoring in FY19 estimates as well.



Given the uncertain times we live in and the abysmal state of affairs in
many regions across the globe, a moderate or conservative investor may be
justified in reducing allocation to equity or in buying protection in the
form of protective Puts or Gold. However, the case for bottom-up investing
in stocks yet remains strong. Even if assumed that the Nifty were to
deliver modest returns over the next one year, many broader market stock
propositions would still do well. On the eve of the festive season, we have
handpicked *nine* of them.



*Wish you and your loved ones a Happy Diwali!*



*Funds Update*



*Mutual Fund Tracker: A smooth cruise for the MF industry in September*



Money continues to flow into mutual funds, with the industry's total Assets
under Management (AUM) increasing by 1.08% (Rs. 168.99bn) to Rs. 15.80tn in
September 2016. This follows a 2.96% (Rs450.8bn) rise in Aug 2016.The share
of equity-oriented schemes stood at 26.4% of the industry AUM in September
2016, down from 29.2% YoY. The proportionate share of income schemes was at
44.2% of total AUM in September, 2016, which is a marginal decrease from
46.3% in September 2015.The AUM collected from 18 newly launched schemes in
September, 2016, stood at Rs. 43.00bn, of which sixteen were close-ended
income funds, while one each were in open ended and closed ended equity
schemes.



*Adani Ports and SEZ (Q2 FY17): Robust performance; set for strong growth -
Accumulate*

*CMP (Rs) 313, 12-mts Target (Rs) 332, Upside 6%*



Adani Ports witnessed revenue growth of 21% yoy during Q2 FY17 aided by
strong pickup in cargo volumes. The cargo volumes handled during the
quarter stood at 43 MMT (up 17% yoy). The revenues were above our estimates
and the Company continues to aggressively focus on reducing dependence on
Coal cargo which has been under pressure owing to decline in coal imports.
Operating Margins stood at 66.5% during Q2 FY17 as against 65% during same
period last year. The performance was driven by the strong growth in
topline and the sharp decline in other expenses. Other income witnessed a
sharp rise of 58% yoy growth during Q2 FY17. Strong operating performance
along with decline in finance costs along led to sharp rise in PAT during
the period. We expect the company to deliver cargo volume growth of ~10%
during FY17. The Company also intends to reduce its Loans and Advances
substantially by end of FY17. The proceeds are expected to be used to pay
off portion of the outstanding debt. As the Company continues its
diversification strategy, the decline in coal volumes is likely to be
offset by the increasing non-coal cargo and container volumes. We upgrade
our estimates to factor in the strong performance. The stock is currently
trading at 18x FY18E EPS. As the non-coal cargo volumes are picking up and
related parties loans have been declining, the Company is likely to be
re-rated. We upgrade our rating to Accumulate with target of Rs.332 per
share.



*Axis Bank (Q2 FY17): Challenges to persist – Accumulate*

*CMP Rs529, 12-mts Target Rs578, Upside 9.2%*



² Retail led balance sheet growth continues

² A big negative surprise on asset quality; pain to persist

² Another round of earnings downgrade; Retain Accumulate



*Bharti Infratel (Q2 FY17): Subdued quarter - Accumulate*

*CMP (Rs) 379, 12-mts Target (Rs) 400, Upside 5.5%*



Bharti Infratel management expects aggressive roll outs in H2 after the
close of recent auction as operators look to fill gaps in priority circles.
Also it does not see any need for further negotiations on rentals after the
change in tariff setting despite falling data and voice tariffs. Q2 sales
increased 2.5% qoq driven by strong 5.6% growth in power reimbursements
while rentals grew 0.8% qoq. Energy margin of 6.4% led to beat on EBIDTA at
+4% qoq; higher fixed income yield led to surge in interest income and
translated into PAT beat at +2.2% qoq. Capex ramped up qoq to Rs5.1bn in
anticipation of telecom roll outs. Adjusted fund flow from operations
increased 12% yoy. We tweak our FY17/18E estimates but retain Accumulate
with unchanged1-year target of Rs400.



*Idea Cellular (Q2 FY17): Costs, weak seasonality mar Q2 - Accumulate*

*CMP (Rs) 75, 12-mts Target (Rs) 83, Upside 11.1%*



Idea management would refocus on volume led expansion in voice minutes and
would take steps to operate a notch below the market leaders on realized
rates. Management indicated that strategy to raise rates has not worked and
would strive to regain volumes after two lacklustre quarters. FY17 capex
guidance has been hiked by Rs10bn to Rs75-80bn and would represent peak
capex with sharp fall expected in FY19. Company continued its network build
out as evident from surge in 3G site rollouts in Q2 along with robust voice
and data subscriber addition qoq. Overall Idea reported a subdued quarter
on seasonal revenue weakness and higher operating costs which led to 7.6%
qoq decline in EBIDTA. Company incurred Rs20bn capex funded from Rs19bn
cash profit while net debt stood at Rs364bn or 3.2x annualized FY17 EBIDTA.
We cut FY17/18E EPS estimates and retain Accumulate with revised 1-year
target of Rs83.



*Federal Bank (Q2 FY17): Concerns around asset quality persist – Reduce*

*CMP (Rs) 81, 12-mts Target (Rs) 79, Downside 2.6%*



Federal Bank reported a strong 19% yoy growth in NII helped by improvement
in NIMs and robust loan growth. While NIMs expanded 40bps yoy on a risk
adjusted basis, the loan book growth (27% yoy) was led by high quality
corporate loan growth (47% yoy) and partially supported by buyout of a
Mortgage portfolio. Cost of funds have contracted by a sharp 70bps yoy led
by lower rates on both the deposit as well as borrowing front. Other income
growth (44% yoy) was ably supported by strong core fee income growth (46%
yoy) and handsome treasury gains. Cost/income has also improved by 550bps
to 52% and should be able to sustain these levels over the next couple of
years, after accounting for the additional gains that may have accrued in
this quarter by way of treasury. Gross NPA was contained at 2.8% in Q2 FY17
v/s 2.9% in Q1 FY17 characterized by lower slippages (1.7% annualized). The
concerns on asset quality still persist though, with a couple of steel
accounts under watch list and one more account that may come out of
moratorium in Q4 FY17. While we have revised our estimates upwards to
factor in the benefit of lower cost of funds, higher other income and loan
growth, valuations of 1.6x FY18 P/Adj. BV are unappealing. We thus,
maintain our Reduce rating with a target price of Rs. 79.



*Technical Track*



Previous Tuesday's upmove of 158 points in the index appears to be a
distant memory as the action thereafter has been about consolidation as
Nifty attempts to regain control above 3-digit gann number of 8710. Despite
selling pressure in Tuesday's morning's trade, Nifty found support around
the PRZ of bullish cypher pattern (i.e. 8665) on intra-day charts,
contributing a pullback in second half of trade.



Clear trend failed to emerge among the sectoral indices as action was
restricted to result specific counters. Multiple gann supply points are
placed between 8710 and 8743 which has been acting as a hurdle since last
five trading sessions. So fresh momentum is possible only above 8750 and on
the downside a move below 8650 would lead to a breakdown from recent
consolidation.



*Derivatives Diary*



² Nifty continued to consolidate around 8700, Bank Nifty outperformed.
Rollover for Nifty/Bank Nifty futures stood at 40.4/32.4% on D-2 day

² Significant open interest additions were seen at 8700 call and unwinding
at 8700 put. Maximum OI base remains at 9000 call and 8600 put

² FIIs turned cautious, as FIIs index futures long/short ratio seen at
2.16x (Prev 2.43x) with unwinding of 3.6k long and addition of 8k short
index contracts

² Negative start possible, as SGX Nifty is trading 8663 lower by 35 points



*Fixed Income Synopsis*



The 10Y benchmark 7.59% GS 2026, ended ~1 bps higher at 6.87% vs previous
close of 6.86% , and the 6.97% GS 2026 ended ~1 bps higher at 6.77% vs
previous close of 6.76%. Gsecs recorded total trading volume of ~Rs. 499
bn.



The demand at the fixed Repo window was Rs. 110.91 bn, while the supply at
the fixed Reverse Repo window was registered at Rs. 47.66 bn. The Call WAR
closed lower at 6.17%. vs previous close of 6.23%



The benchmark five-year OIS and one-year OIS closed marginally higher, with
the 5-Y OIS closing at 6.31% vs. previous day's close of 6.31%, while the
1-Y OIS closed at 6.34% vs. previous day's close of 6.33%.



The Reserve Bank of India's Reference Rate for the US Dollar is Rs.66.88 on
October 25, 2016, while the corresponding rate for the previous day
(October 24, 2016) was Rs.66.86.



*Commodity & Currency Cues*



*Gold prices* are exhibiting impressive resilience to the headwinds posed
by an ascending US dollar. It seems that healthy global ETF inflows and
improving physical demand in India is counterbalancing the repercussions of
the currency induced equation.



*LME base metals* are on fire despite absence of any meaningful fundamental
trigger. We sense that most of the buying is originating from China, where
massive arbitrage positions have been built up over past few weeks,
categorically in Zinc. These positions are now in the process of being
squared off (short covering on LME) and as a result contributing to the
upside rally.



*Crude Oil futures *scaled lower, weighed down by Iraq's reluctance to
participate in the production cuts proposed by OPEC. Moreover, weekly rise
in US crude oil inventories (reported by API) also dented the sentiment.
API reported a rise of 4.8mn barrels in US stockpiles, well ahead of the
estimates.



*Greenback *remained on a strong footing, bolstered by hawkish remarks by
Chicago Fed President, where he stated that Fed might hike interest rates
three times between now and end of 2017. Effectively, US bond yields have
also moved higher. Imperatively, various other major currencies (GBP, Euro
& Yen) were on the defensive. *Renminbi* is also exhibiting fragility and
we infer that it can lose more ground going forward as Chinese regime
persists with beggar thy neighbour policy in order to stimulate exports.



*Corporate Snippets *



² *Glenmark Pharmaceuticals* has received final approval from the US
health regulator for anti—fungal ointment nystatin and triamcinolone
acetonide. (BL)

² *Tata Power* will invest in renewable plants in India as it plans to
increase its clean energy footprint to 30-40% by 2025. (BL)

² *Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd (KOEL)* has launched a new range of high
horsepower gensets to address the growing market for data centres, malls
and other commercial establishments. (BL)

² Tata Power Renewable Energy Ltd (TPREL), a wholly owned subsidiary of *Tata
Power Company Limited*, has inked a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for a
100mw solar project at Anantapuram solar park in Andhra Pradesh with the
Solar Corporation of India (SECI). (BL)

² *Bosch *unveiled a range of connected and smart solutions for diverse
industrial sectors to enhance productivity and operational efficiency. (BS)

² The Centre has won an international arbitration involving potential
claim of more than USD1bn,

Swaminathan V. <v_swami@hotmail.com>: Oct 26 04:38AM

Hi,

My number is 006591122166. Could you please add me to the whatsapp group.

Thanks

From: longterminvestorsresearch@googlegroups.com [mailto:longterminvestorsresearch@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Hasanpeer Syed
Sent: 25 October 2016 17:31
To: longterminvestorsresearch@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: {LONGTERMINVESTORS} Please Money times and Smart Investment


Send ur watsapp no n will forward u
On 25 Oct 2016 10:11, "tanya mehra" <tanyamehra789@gmail.com<mailto:tanyamehra789@gmail.com>> wrote:
It is coming on our whatsapp group

On Tue, Oct 25, 2016 at 5:44 AM, ronit sam <ronitsam1317@gmail.com<mailto:ronitsam1317@gmail.com>> wrote:
Hi All,

Any luck on Money time and Smart investment?

On Sun, Oct 23, 2016 at 1:11 PM, Rajesh Maheshwari <rajeshinani@gmail.com<mailto:rajeshinani@gmail.com>> wrote:

Dear all ,
Share the Same.
Regards,
Rajesh Maheshwari

On 23-Oct-2016 10:26 PM, "Nishant Gogia" <nishant.gogia@gmail.com<mailto:nishant.gogia@gmail.com>> wrote:
Could someone please share Money Times and Smart Investment for this week. Thanks much.

Best Regards,
Nishant
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Bhunesh Sharma <bhuneshsharma@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:18AM +0530

yes my number 9867030326 .. please add me tooo

On Wed, Oct 26, 2016 at 10:08 AM, Swaminathan V. <v_swami@hotmail.com>
wrote:


--
Don't Look at the world ......let the world look at
you.......!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mehak Choksi <mehakchoksi@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:25AM +0530

They are coming in whatsapp group

On Wed, Oct 26, 2016 at 10:18 AM, Bhunesh Sharma <bhuneshsharma@gmail.com>
wrote:
Rajesh Maheshwari <rajeshinani@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:34AM +0530

Sir please forward me on 9214337276
Regards,
rajesh

Mehak Choksi <mehakchoksi@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:13AM +0530

*Results table*

*Rs m*

*Revenue*

*YoY %*

*PAT*

*YoY %*

Asian Paints

37,205

(0.3)

4,759

19.3

Axis Bank

1,36,988

14.1

3,191

(83.3)

Bharti Airtel

2,46,715

3.4

14,607

(4.9)

Crompton

8,900

NA

550

NA

Dr. Reddy's Labs

35,857

(10.1)

2,950

(59.1)

HDFC Bank

1,99,709

15.3

34,553

20.4

IDFC Bank

20,830

(48.7)

3,878

(40.6)

Jyothy Laboratories

4,335

8.2

320

(17.4)

Kotak Mahindra Bank

84,150

25.1

12,024

27.7

M&M Fin Services

14,916

5.0

948

(35.1)

PI Industries

5,853

20.5

1,014

77.9

Shriram Transp Fin

27,132

12.0

3,877

14.7

Zee Entertainment

16,558

19.7

2,384

27.1
Mehak Choksi <mehakchoksi@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:31AM +0530

Bharti Airtel



Q2 QoQ

-Consolidated net profit at Rs 1,460.7 crore versus Rs 1,462 crore

-Consolidated total income at Rs 24,651.5 crore versus Rs 25546.5 crore

-Consolidated EBITDA at Rs 9,466.2 crore versus Rs 9591.3 crore

-Consolidated EBITDA margin at 38.4 percent versus 37.5 percent



PI Industries



Q2

-Net profit up 77.9 percent at Rs 101.4 crore versus Rs 57 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 19.9 percent at Rs 571.9 crore versus Rs 476.8 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA up 53.2 percent at Rs 127.9 crore versus Rs 83.5 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 22.4 percent versus 17.5 percent (YoY)



Bharat Bijlee



Q2

-Net profit at Rs 8.4 crore versus Rs 0.7 crore (YoY)

-Total income at Rs 143.6 crore versus Rs 133.6 crore (YoY)



Crompton Consumer Q2

-Net profit at Rs 55 crore versus Rs 92 crore (QoQ)

-Total income at Rs 890 crore versus Rs 1,121 crore (QoQ)



Axis Bank



Q2

-Net profit down 83.1 percent at Rs 319 crore versus Rs 1,915.6 crore (YoY)

-Provisions at Rs 3,623 crore versus Rs 707 crore (YoY)

-Gross NPA at 4.17 percent versus 2.54 percent (QoQ)

-Net NPA at 2.02 percent versus 1.08 percent (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at Rs 16,378 crore versus Rs 9,553 crore (QoQ)



M&M Financial



Q2

-Net profit at Rs 94.8 versus Rs 146.2 crore (YoY)

-NII at Rs 783 crore versus Rs 765.8 crore (YoY)



State Bank Of Mysore Q2

-Net loss at Rs 183.5 crore versus profit of Rs 132 crore (YoY)

-NII down 14.5 percent at Rs 450 crore versus Rs 526.3 crore (YoY)

-Gross NPA at 13.01 percent versus 7.83 percent (QoQ)

-Net NPA at 8.43 percent versus 4.65 percent (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at Rs 7,173.6 crore versus Rs 4,323.1 crore (QoQ)

-Net NPA at Rs 4,411.6 crore versus Rs 2,480 crore (QoQ)

-Provisions at Rs 518.2 crore versus Rs 1,038 crore (QoQ) & versus Rs 116.4
crore (YoY)



Ortel Comm



Q2

-Net profit down 10.7 percent at Rs 2.5 crore versus Rs 2.8 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 17.2 percent at Rs 53.7 crore versus Rs 45.8 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA up 33.3 percent at Rs 15.2 crore versus Rs 11.4 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 28.3 percent versus 24.9 percent (YoY)



IFB Agro



Q2

-Net profit up 21.9 percent at Rs 8.9 crore versus Rs 7.3 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 47.6 percent at Rs 273.4 crore versus Rs 185.2 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA at up 0.8 percent Rs 13.3 crore versus Rs 13.2 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 13.3 percent versus 13.2 percent (YoY)



Kokuyo Camlin



Q2

-Net loss at Rs 3.7 crore versus loss of Rs 0.6 crore (YoY)

-Total income down 0.2 percent at Rs 129.6 crore versus Rs 129.8 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA loss at Rs 0.7 crore versus EBITDA profit of Rs 3.1 crore (YoY)



IDFC Bank



Q2

-Net profit up 46.5 percent at Rs 387.7 crore versus Rs 264.7 crore (QoQ)

-NII down 0.7 percent at Rs 495.6 crore versus Rs 499 crore (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at 5.96 percent versus 6.09 percent (QoQ)

-Net NPA at 2.44 percent versus 2.32 percent (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at Rs 3,219.7 crore versus Rs 3,030 crore (QoQ)

-Net NPA at Rs 1,271.4 crore versus Rs 1,110.6 crore (QoQ)



KSB Pumps



Q2

-Net profit down 56 percent at Rs 7.4 crore versus Rs 16.8 crore (YoY)

-Total income down 13 percent at Rs 161.6 crore versus Rs 185.8 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA down 56.4 percent at Rs 12.7 crore versus Rs 29.1 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 7.9 percent versus 15.7 percent (YoY)



L&T Finance



Q2

-Consolidated net profit at Rs 248 crore

-Consolidated NII at Rs 934.3 Crore



MCX Q2

-Net profit up 23 percent at Rs 37.6 crore versus Rs 30.6 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 7 percent at Rs 65.2 crore versus Rs 61.2 crore (YoY)



Shemaroo Q2

-Consolidated net profit up 29.2 percent at Rs 14.6 crore versus Rs 11.3
crore (YoY)

-Consolidated total income up 21.4 percent at Rs 113.5 crore versus Rs 93.5
crore (YoY)



Shakti Pumps



Q2

-Net profit up 5.9 percent at Rs 3.6 crore versus Rs 3.4 crore (YoY)

-Total income up 9.1 percent at Rs 75.4 crore versus Rs 69.1 crore (YoY)



Royal Orchid Hotels



Q2

-Net profit up 35 percent at Rs 2.7 crore versus Rs 2 crore (YoY)

-Total income down 18.6 percent at Rs 19.2 crore versus Rs 21 crore (YoY)

Mehak Choksi <mehakchoksi@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:29AM +0530

ET NOW BROKERAGE RADAR:
BofA-ML ON ASIAN PAINTS : Any clarity on GST could be a positive trigger
BofA-ML ON ASIAN PAINTS : Good results in wake of otherwise weak consumer
sentiment in rural, urban mkts
BofA-ML ON ASIAN PAINTS : Maintains Buy, target of ₹1,320
BofA-ML ON ASIAN PAINTS : Normal monsoon, 7th Pay Comm-linked wage-hikes to
provide tailwinds ahead
BofA-ML ON ASIAN PAINTS : Volume momentum strong; H2 likely to be stronger

BofA-ML ON KOTAK BANK : Asset quality appears to be stabilising
post-acquisition of ING Vysya Bank
BofA-ML ON KOTAK BANK : Believes 20% loan growth guidance a tall task given
~14% growth so far
BofA-ML ON KOTAK BANK : Maintains Buy, target of ₹920
BofA-ML ON KOTAK BANK : Other positive: Efficiency after acquisition, which
continues to improve
BofA-ML ON KOTAK BANK : Weakness visible across subsidiaries; non-bank biz
net profit grew by ~5% YoY

BofA-ML ON ZEE ENT : Ad growth lower than exp on slight drop in ratings of
flagship GEC channel
BofA-ML ON ZEE ENT : Ad growth lower than expectations due to moderation in
ad spends
BofA-ML ON ZEE ENT : Maintains Buy, target of ₹625
BofA-ML ON ZEE ENT : New draft regulations for broadcasting to help in
improved transparency
BofA-ML ON ZEE ENT : New draft regulations to help in rightful share in
subscription revenue
BofA-ML ON ZEE ENT : Strong growth in domestic subscription driven by early
closure of content deals

CITI ON ZEE ENT : Elevated expectations + valuations make stock's risk
reward unfavourable
CITI ON ZEE ENT : Good regional channel performance offset by pressures on
flagship channel
CITI ON ZEE ENT : Maintains Sell, target of ₹485
CITI ON ZEE ENT : Margins expansion on better subscription, syndication in
Q2
CITI ON ZEE ENT : Mgmt maintained full year guidance of mid-teens growth

CS ON ADANI PORTS : Commodity diversification to provide sustainable growth
and cash flows
CS ON ADANI PORTS : Key risk: over-aggressive asset acq spree; cash usage
for non-biz purposes
CS ON ADANI PORTS : Maintains Outperform, raises target to ₹360 from ₹310
CS ON ADANI PORTS : Raises FY17E/FY18E EPS by 8%, Sees strong asset
profile, asset addition
CS ON ADANI PORTS : Results addressed concern on volume visibility and L&A
reduction
CS ON ADANI PORTS : Results better sequentially but weak Q2 comps make them
look srong

CS ON AXIS BANK : Build in higher NPL slippage, raises credit cost est for
FY17 to ~315 bps
CS ON AXIS BANK : Cuts FY17E EPS by ~45% but build a 2.0x multiple to the
cleaned-up book
CS ON AXIS BANK : Healthy retail loans, adequate capital allows bank to
undertake clean-up
CS ON AXIS BANK : Maintains Outperform, cuts target to ₹550 from ₹625
CS ON AXIS BANK : Mgmt increased slippage guidance from watchlist; expects
bulk of it in FY17
CS ON AXIS BANK : Weaker than expected qtr as 30% of watchlist slipped to
NPL

CS ON HDFC BANK : Corporate loan growth slows down; Asset quality held up
well
CS ON HDFC BANK : Expects NIMs to move back up in H2
CS ON HDFC BANK : Investment in franchise build up yielded result, driving
market share gains
CS ON HDFC BANK : Maintains Outperform, target of ₹1,470
CS ON HDFC BANK : Sees continued strength in retail biz growth, 20%+ assets
and earnings growth

CS ON SHRIRAM TRANSPORT : Continues to rate SHTF stock as one of top picks
in the NBFC space
CS ON SHRIRAM TRANSPORT : Growth slowed but remains at ~20% YoY levels
CS ON SHRIRAM TRANSPORT : Maintains Outperfrom, target of ₹1,500
CS ON SHRIRAM TRANSPORT : NIM weakness temporary; improvements in opex &
credit costs sustainable
CS ON SHRIRAM TRANSPORT : Reinstatement of Umesh Revankar could help give
some continuity to strategy

IDFC ON DR REDDY'S : Co continues to have one of most exciting ANDA
pipelines in Indian ind
IDFC ON DR REDDY'S : Co continues to have one of the most exciting ANDA
pipelines in Indian ind
IDFC ON DR REDDY'S : Fairly limited visibility currently on timing of nod
of new big ticket drugs
IDFC ON DR REDDY'S : Key negatives: Lower gross margins; higher R&D spends
IDFC ON DR REDDY'S : Key positives: Sequential improvement in rev across
verticals, lower SGA expenses
IDFC ON DR REDDY'S : Maintains Underperform, target of ₹2,847

KOTAK ON ASIAN PAINTS : Downgrades to Sell from Reduce, raises target to
₹1,000 from ₹950
KOTAK ON ASIAN PAINTS : Q2 not weak enough for lofty valuations to correct
despite being a miss
KOTAK ON ASIAN PAINTS : Q2, Q3 performance should always be seen as
composite given festive season
KOTAK ON ASIAN PAINTS : Remains cautious as continues to find valuations
rich: trading at 45X FY2018E

MS ON ADANI PORTS : Maintains Overweight, target of ₹260
MS ON ADANI PORTS : Market's leverage worries should recede with gross, net
debt coming off
MS ON ADANI PORTS : Mgmt retained guidance of 10-15% YoY in FY17
MS ON ADANI PORTS : Top line driven by volume growth and improving mix

MS ON BHARTI AIRTEL : Data volume growth strong, but pricing pressure led
to slowest ever rev growth
MS ON BHARTI AIRTEL : Maintains Underweight, target of ₹270
MS ON BHARTI AIRTEL : Underweight Bharti on concerns of rising competitive
intensity
MS ON BHARTI AIRTEL : Underweight on concerns of rising competitive
intensity
MS ON BHARTI AIRTEL : Wireless margin strong at 42.4%, but not sustainable
with rising competition

MS ON DR REDDY'S : Co has completed remediation process for all 3 sites;
requested re-inspection
MS ON DR REDDY'S : Impact of price erosion on US portfolio moderated
sequentially
MS ON DR REDDY'S : Maintains Equalweight, target of ₹2,883
MS ON DR REDDY'S : Mgmt cautiously optimistic for growth outlook in H2
MS ON DR REDDY'S : Saw sequentially better US, Indi[truncated by WhatsApp]

Mehak Choksi <mehakchoksi@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:26AM +0530


Mehak Choksi <mehakchoksi@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:24AM +0530

*Result Update:** Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd*

Highest ever volume at 43 mn tonnes (19% YoY) reflects (1) strong growth
in containers and crude, with recovery of coal volumes; (2) Strong
contribution from subsidiary ports (3) healthy consolidated EBITDA margin,
(4) higher non-recurring income and rationalization of interest cost that
boosted PAT. The company's good FY17 volume growth guidance, led by
commissioning of new ports, new cargo sourcing and market share gains, is a
positive. Management also intends to reverse the Loans & Advances of Rs 25
bn extended till date in FY17 and we see this as healthy corporate
governance from the company. Broadly, we estimate volume to grow at 12%
CAGR over FY16 to FY18E driven by volumes at Dhamra, Hazira, Dahej and
container volumes at Mundra leading to earnings CAGR of 16% with ROE of
20%. Recommend* ACCUMULATE* (from BUY) with an increased TP of 340 (from Rs
305)



*Result Update:** Asian Paints Ltd*

¾ Low double digit volume growth in the decorative paint segment, improved
performance in the industrial and auto OEM segment has led to revenue of Rs
42.3 bn (+12% YoY), but higher raw material cost has translated into lower
Ebidta margin of 16.9% (-320 bps QoQ) and lower earnings of Rs 4.95 bn
(-10% QoQ) vs. our expectation of Rs 5.5 bn. Over-seas performance is a
mixed bag, while home improvement segment (Sleek International) continue to
disappoint despite receiving attention and investments from the parent. We
interpret the performance as weak from a market leader in a competitive
market with stable demand environment, especially when the stock is trading
at high valuation.

¾ We continue to value the stock at 45x FY18E EPS (premium to medium sized
paint companies) and arrive at a TP of Rs 1075 (from Rs 1125) and recommend
*SELL* (from Accumulate)



*Result Update:** Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd*

The quarter was better than expected due to better than expected export
formulations growth. ALPM had a strong quarter last year due to an
exclusive opportunity (gAbilify) and was booking certain profit share until
Q1FY17 for gAbilify. The opportunity was to cease from Q2FY17, however
management indicated that some spillover has continued in the current
quarter and will subside going ahead. Certain shift of US products from
partner to own front end as well as certain drug shortage opportunity also
aided export formulations growth. We have been optimistic on ALPM and
continue to believe that it is one of the best bets in the mid cap pharma
space. We tweak our EPS estimates for FY18 higher by 7% to factor better
export formulations revenues driven by better traction in front end
launches. We maintain our *ACCUMULATE *rating on Alembic Pharma with a
revised price target of Rs 725 (Rs 700 earlier), 24x FY18E EPS of Rs 30.3
(earlier Rs 28.3).



*Result Update:** Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd*

Dr. Reddy's results were ahead of expectations on both revenues as well as
PAT front. Revenues (including other operating income) came in at Rs
36.2bn, down 9% YoY. EBIDTA margins were at 17.8% for the quarter, down
1082bps YoY but up 543bps QoQ. PAT was down ~59% YoY. We have been cautious
on DRL due to increasing competition in its key injectable products (40% of
US revenues) and lack of big ticket launches. US, which is the largest
revenue contributor at 48% to revenues has been the key driver in the past
few years but going ahead the outlook looks weak. Moreover, the impending
compliance issues at its plants will further delay the launch pipeline for
DRL. Hence, we continue to maintain a cautious stance on DRL. We maintain
our estimates for FY17E as well as FY18E. Maintain *SELL* with a target
price of Rs 2770.



*Result Update:** Geometric Ltd*

Geometric's 2Q numbers were above our expectations. Revenues grew by 3.7%
QoQ in USD terms and margins were up by about 400bps QoQ to 21.05%, on back
of improved operating metrics. The order booking during the quarter was at
$15.05mn v/s $15.48mn in previous quarter, $14.5mn in 4Q and $15.2mn in 3Q
(highest in past 14/15 quarters). Geometric has completed restructuring the
delivery organization, which is yielding margin benefits. It is now looking
at streamlining and strengthening the sales organization and processes to
improve the topline growth and make it more predictable. We believe
Geometric is on the right path and the acquisition by HCLT should result in
more predictability and sustainability of revenue growth.

Karishma Suvarna <karishmasuvarna5@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:00AM +0530

CS ON HDFC BANK : Corporate loan growth slows down; Asset quality held up
well
CS ON HDFC BANK : Expects NIMs to move back up in H2
CS ON HDFC BANK : Investment in franchise build up yielded result, driving
market share gains
CS ON HDFC BANK : Maintains Outperform, target of ₹1,470
CS ON HDFC BANK : Sees continued strength in retail biz growth, 20%+ assets
and earnings growth
Karishma Suvarna <karishmasuvarna5@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:04AM +0530

*RESULTS UPDATE:*

*HDFC Bank (SELL): **In-line results, stock fairly valued*
HDFC Bank's 2QFY17 PAT at Rs34.6bn was up 20% YoY, in line with our and
consensus expectations. While loan growth (18% vs average 25% YoY growth in
last five quarters) momentum slowed a bit in corporate and select retail
segments, treasury income, control on opex and stable asset quality,
supported growth. NIM was largely stable (down 10bps QoQ), but fee income
(up 10% YoY) stayed subdued due to competition in retail segment. Asset
quality was stable with total stressed assets at 1.1% of overall book. We
expect loan growth for banking system to remain muted (11-12%) during
FY17-18, leading to elevated competitive intensity in pricing of loans.
Growth faster than current run-rate would come at expense of NIMs and cost
pressures. We expect both standalone earnings and EPS CAGR of 20% over
FY17-18E and average RoEs of 19.2% over FY17-18E. Current multiples of 21x
FY17E P/E and 3.8x FY17E P/B, ~35% premium over peers, largely capture
superior earnings in medium term. Remain SELLers. (Pankaj Agarwal, CFA, +91
22 3043 3206)
Mehak Choksi <mehakchoksi@gmail.com>: Oct 26 11:12AM +0530

Results - KOTAK INST.

*HDFC Bank:* Stable trends

l

Stable performance aided by cost control and low credit cost

l

Retail loan growth momentum continues

l

Retain ADD with TP of Rs1,400 (from Rs1,350)

Kaustav Ray /RESEARCH/ISEC/MUMBAI <kaustav.ray@icicisecurities.com>: Oct 26 04:52AM

Daily mutual fund equity and debt performance report

Dear all,

Please find the performance tracker of equity and debt mutual fund schemes in the links mentioned below.

For details, click on the links below
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ISec_daily_Equity_Performance_Report.zip
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ISec_daily_Debt_Performance_Report.zip

Research Desk |ICICIdirect.com|
ICICI Securities Ltd |Akruti Trade Centre, 1st Floor |Road No. 7, MIDC | Andheri (East)| Mumbai 400 093 |
Email : research@icicidirect.com<mailto:research@icicidirect.com> |

---
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Rajiv Handa <rhapositive@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:12AM +0530

Treasury gains unlikely to fully take care of provisioning needs. The drop
in bond yields is a welcome development for Indian banks given their large
mandated treasury holdings. The boost in treasury profits will help them
cushion some of the impact of the high provision costs hitting their P&L.

However, unlike the 2001-03 experience, this is no "get out of jail" card
for the Indian PSU banks as these treasury profits will not sufficiently
address their provision/capital needs.


The key differences now are: (a) fall in rates—between Nov-2000 and
Nov-2003, 10-year G-sec fell 670 bp from 11.7% to 5.0%, while from Oct-2013
to Oct-2016, it has fallen 200 bp from 8.7% to 6.7%; (b) size of investment
book—investment books are now only 38% of loans vs 91% of loans in FY01;
(c) size of pension liabilities—liabilities are up ~5x since FY08 and these
are inversely correlated to bond prices.

■ Increase in pension liabilities to partly offset treasury gains.

As actuaries lower discount rates that are pegged to bond yields, the
increase in these liabilities will offset part of the gains banks accrue in
their treasury portfolios. We therefore estimate that for the PSU bank
universe, the net gain from a 150 bp drop in bond yields will only be 54 bp
of loans, even assuming banks book profit on 20% of the HTM portfolio and
the entire AFS book.

■ Falling yields have led to faster disintermediation. Additionally, this
rapid drop in bond market yields that banks are unable to match with their
lending rate cuts (75-95 bp cut in benchmark rate vs 265 bp fall in bond
yields) is leading to faster dis-intermediation of quality borrowers
(record Rs2 tn corporate bond issuance in 2Q17 vs Rs1.3 tn in 4Q16).
Corporate focused lenders would continue to see pressure on growth as
better quality borrowers move to the bond market.


We, therefore, believe that non-bank retail lenders (LICHF, MMFS, SCUF,
etc.) are best placed to benefit from the drop in bond yields. Among the
banks we continue to prefer retail to corporate lenders and private to PSU
banks. Among the PSUs, Union (O) has the highest duration and we prefer it
to PNB, BOI, IOB (U), and SBI and BOB (N).

Karishma Suvarna <karishmasuvarna5@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:03AM +0530

IDFC Bank



Q2

-Net profit up 46.5 percent at Rs 387.7 crore versus Rs 264.7 crore (QoQ)

-NII down 0.7 percent at Rs 495.6 crore versus Rs 499 crore (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at 5.96 percent versus 6.09 percent (QoQ)

-Net NPA at 2.44 percent versus 2.32 percent (QoQ)

-Gross NPA at Rs 3,219.7 crore versus Rs 3,030 crore (QoQ)

-Net NPA at Rs 1,271.4 crore versus Rs 1,110.6 crore (QoQ)
Karishma Suvarna <karishmasuvarna5@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:07AM +0530

26/10/2016

10:00 AM

IDFC Bank

-

91-22-39381071/67468354

Conference Call

Karishma Suvarna <karishmasuvarna5@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:06AM +0530

--

Karishma Suvarna

Karishma Suvarna <karishmasuvarna5@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:05AM +0530

*UPDATES*

*Asian Paints (BUY): **Strong volume growth in 2Q; reiterate TOP BUY*
Asian Paints delivered another strong quarter with 10% YoY revenue growth
(13% YoY volume growth) and 17% YoY EPS growth. Current high valuations of
43x vs 35x two years back are justified by: a) resilient repainting demand
in a weak macro environment with the industry likely to deliver volume CAGR
of ~12% over the next decade; b) greater pricing power vs historical levels
provides sustainability to current higher levels of EBITDA margins (~140bps
higher than 1HFY16); and c) ability to successfully drive the next phase of
evolution towards providing value-added services in the broader home
improvement category. We expect 18%/23% revenue/EPS CAGR over FY16-FY20
amid 15%/12% decorative paint industry revenue CAGR over FY15-25/FY25-35.
We have reduced our revenue and earnings estimates for FY17/18 by 1-2%
following the 2QFY17 results. Our DCF-based fair value of Rs1,270 (11%
upside) implies 43x FY18E P/E. (Rakshit Ranjan, CFA, +91 22 3043 3201)

Karishma Suvarna <karishmasuvarna5@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:02AM +0530

The company through its overseas wholly-owned subsidiaries signed
facilities agreements for availing term loan facilities for an aggregate
amount of $573 million (equivalent to approximately Rs 3828 crore) for part
financing the construction cost of six very large ethane carriers (VLECs)
(the facilities). RIL group had ordered six state-of-the-art VLECs, which
will be the largest ethane vessels ever built in the world. The
announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 25 October 2016.

The facilities with door to door tenor of 12 year comprise of a Korea Trade
Insurance Corporation (K-sure) insured tranche of $286.50 million and a
commercial tranche of $286.50 million. The facilities shall be secured by
collateral of respective VLECs. The said VLECs are financed at a debt to
equity ratio of 80:20. The facilities were oversubscribed by two times and
saw participation from seven banks in K-sure covered tranche and six banks
in the commercial tranche. This reflects the strong credit standing of RIL
in the international financial markets. VLECs would transport ethane from
United States of America to Dahej terminal in India, which will be used for
feeding RIL's crackers at Dahej, Hazira and Nagothane, to ensure consistent
supply of ethane at competitive prices.

Karishma Suvarna <karishmasuvarna5@gmail.com>: Oct 26 10:01AM +0530

Please find enclosed herewith the following :





1. Results



1. Press Release



1. Investors' Presentation



Please acknowledge the receipt.



Investors Presentation & Results are available on our website





Kind Regards

Bramesh Bhandari <bhandaribrahmesh@gmail.com>: Oct 26 08:52AM +0530

*Canara Bank*[image: canara-bank]

*Intraday Traders can use the below mentioned levels*
Buy above 327 Tgt 331


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<http://www.brameshtechanalysis.com/2016/10/cypher-harmonic-analysis/>


Rgds,

Bramesh
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