{LONGTERMINVESTORS} How To Engineer A Recession?

What is the Nifty or Sensex PE for an Economy in Recession?

Thirty years ago as a rookie with Hero Moto, I was sent to Daman and the industrial belt of Ahmedabad-Valsad for an on the ground check of what our bike dealers were upto.

Uttarayan or Makar Sankrant was around the corner and farmers were flush with proceeds of the Groundnut and the Cotton crop. In this land of Gandhi, the most popular attire was the Nehru cap, a short black jacket and white dhoti. In places like Valsad, we had more bookings than the population of the city. Things were similar in Ahmedabad, Navsari, Anand, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Baroda and Valsad.

One thing common was the number of farmers riding down bicyclesm carrying piles of soiled notes in cotton bags to Buy the Hero CD100. Such was the strength of our product that we had raked in almost 4 lakh bookings in Gujarat and Maharashtra,

Daman, being a Union Territory was another story. Because CST was 4 per cent, and Gujarat ST was 10 per cent every Auto producer had godown in Daman. Billings were done from there, temporary registerations made and then moved to places like Surat, Kutch and up North right upto Kandla.

Cash was king. So if you destroy Cash, you destroy an economy and propel a nation into a undesired recession. So how do you value companies, estimate earnings and project a Sensex? RED, I guess,

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