Monday, 21 November 2016

{LONGTERMINVESTORS} Ujjivan - Demonetisation call takeaways - Overall trends Encouraging for collections in last three days

Ujjivan - Demonetisation call takeaways - Overall trends Encouraging for collections in last three days

Postponed collection for forst 3 days in that week so customers.

Resumed collections from 14th November and and results have been encouraging –  collection stands 61% from 9-19 November. Have disbursed Rs200+ Cr from Nov9 – till today. 

All senior officers reported – customers where facing severe problems.

Average ticket size – Rs1000-2000 .

Customers had to spend 12 hours or more in queues – ground level situation.

99%of the customers had intention to pay and it was just matter of avail of notes.

Ujjivan Only MFI –  did not accept Rs500-1000 notes and only accepted legal tender. Whatever repayment has been collected and have been able to used for disbursement of new loans.

Recent MFI – converted banks are unable to disburse and this is creating positive environment for ujjivan.

By end of December situation wil ease and should get back to normal business.

Dealing with RBI and have got positive response from PMO and ministry of finance for collecting Rs500-1000 notes for some time but still awaiting confirmation.

By this month end situation will be at far more better stage.

Battling to get Rs2000 notes and whole loan amount is in cash.

Liquidity position is excellent – no issues in obligations – for meeting all the expenditures 

Rs300 Cr sanction from nabard. So can always be at ease for liquidity

Largely two states – new delhi and UP – lower than national averages – customers sees some dip in business but they are going on credit basis and business getting back to normal 

UP – place where – some adverse developments so it is in that states, don't know and must watch this week.

Mix kind of things – rural areas – difficult to reach and most of the branches are semi urban and Haryana deep town feedback was not able to access currency and delhi cues are humungous.people are not able to access money in big cities and in the semi urban areas – maximum wait is 3 hours

More juggad approach in MFI segments

Goa is doing very well. States in the west are dong quiet well Maharashtra,Gujarat,Mp,Chandigarh,Hp,chattisgarh,karnataka doing reasonably well and tamilnadu.Consistent performance in this states for collections. Worse states like UP and Delhi is 35-40% of collections

Don't see any major issue of collection and things should ease by this month end.

Last 3 days average collections have moved by 65% and trends have been encouraging few states have done 80-85%

90-95% - have done full payment on monthly basis and few have paid part payments

SFB's are allowed to collect . demand from PSE and other NBFC's have been demanding to RBI for allowing collections of old notes.

On an average monthly collections is Rs600-650 Cr and MFI's collecting weekly and some of them are doing fortnightly.

Usual process in terms of credit control and disburse the loans and will review it more stringently

Focusing on existing customers and not acquiring new customers

Recently got an Nod from RBI some more approvals are pending and plans to start deposit from February or early march

Delhi difficult to accept the currency due to heavy crowd.  

70% of the customers are self employed. 

Outlook – Positive if money flows get better by end of December and may get worse if flow does not improve by end of Dec 2017. Overall Mr. Gosh indicated an positive trend is catching up and situations likely to ease.

At CMP Rs341.45, stock trades at P/B of 3.3X with an Mcap of Rs4048.30,stock has corrected 21% till date.


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CA. Rajesh Desai

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