Markets have ended lower for a second session with Nifty closing below the 7600 mark in a choppy but narrow range day. After opening marginally lower, the index oscillated between 70 points throughout the day and failed to go past the 21 hourly EMA (7640) thus indicating near-term weakness. Despite restricted price action, trading volumes clock at marginally above average levels whereas the market breadth continues to remain weak at 2:3 in favor of decliners and volatility (India VIX) has managed to climb up to 17.65% ahead of Thursday's expiry and next week's RBI policy meeting. Monday's bearish price action remains a potential reversal setup but price action is likely to remain restricted to 7600-7700 for the next couple of sessions. Momentum oscillators continue to trade bullish on daily charts but have rolled bearish on the hourly scale. We maintain that Nifty has entered a corrective mode and should now retrace the up move from 6825 to 7749 with key levels at 7400 and 7290. Near-term support continues to be pegged at the 21 day EMA at 7503 which should hold until March expiry and fresh buy signal will not be triggered until Nifty breaches above the 7750mark.
Trend among sectoral indices was mixed with gains seen in Telecom (+1.6%), Autos (+0.9%) and Metals (+0.4%); whereas losses were posted in shares from Healthcare (-2.6%), Cap Goods (-1%) and Power (-0.83%) indexes. Broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap traded in line with their frontline peer with marginal losses of -0.21% and -0.27% respectively.
Bullish Setups: AL, TCS, INFO, AXSB, PIDI, BIOS
Bearish Setups: HNDL, TATA, APHS, GNP, Z, IHFL
| Nifty Index |
|
| Bloomberg Code | NIFTY Index |
| Spot Price | 7597 |
| Resistance 1 | 7652 |
| Resistance 2 | 7695 |
| Support 1 | 7580 |
| Support 2 | 7525 |
| Nifty 20 SDMA | 7367 |
| Nifty 50 SDMA | 7366 |
| Nifty 200 SDMA | 7897 |
| Adv : Dec [NSE] | 623 : 942 |
| Turnover Rs Crs. BSE+NSE cash | 21,657 |
| Oscillators | Comments |
| RSI | Bullish |
| MACD | Bullish |
| Stochastic | Bearish |
| DMI & ADX | Bullish & Trending |
* OB: Over Bought
OS: Over Sold
Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR): " Narrow range day " (30-Mar-16-EDEL)
Regards,
Tejas J. Shah +91 22 4063 5534
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