{LONGTERMINVESTORS} Is The Bear Lurking? Our Downside Probability Is a Min 10 Per Cent Downside From Here-MS

March 31, 2016

The end of the EM equity bear or just a counter-trend move?

We think the recent rally will end soon and is likely the 9th such counter-trend move since the EM equity bear market began in late 2010.

There is 10% downside to our base case Target Price for MSCI EM of 735. This assumes EPS of US$54.4 for 2016 (consensus US$65.6). On our earnings number MSCI EM is outright expensive trading at 14.5x forward P/E.

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