Wednesday, 6 July 2016

Re: {LONGTERMINVESTORS} Research Reports extracts & summaries - Thread

 *Macquarie on HDFC Bank*

* Maintain outperform, target at `1,500
* Diversification has helped sustaining growth for the bank
* Recent wage hike plus possibly good monsoons could ensure strong demand
* Retail - opportunities exist, See some price discipline in retail segment
* Fee income growth continues to be a challenge
* At 3.0x FY18E book, stock trades in line with historical averages
* Expect CAGR in loans, EPS and BVPS at 25%, 22% and 18% over next 3 years

*Citi on Coal India*
* Maintain buy, target at `380
* At CMP, CIL can buyback 2.5% of based on amount to be received from subsidiaries
* If CIL uses ~`78bn cash, buyback could increase to 6.4% of outstanding shares
* Believe CIL would announce buyback for ~5% of shares at premium to CMP
* See higher vols with UDAY, forward e-auctions, rationalization of high-grade prices
* Price hike, ongoing linkage auctions alleviate concerns on EBITDA due to wage revisions

*BNP Paribas on Cummins*
* Maintain hold, cut target to `860 from `900
* Despite recovery in end markets, co cut FY17 guidance citing high base effect
* Cut FY17 sales forecast by 7.6% to conform to the lower guidance
* With recovering markets, exports likely to bottom by 3QFY17; see limited downside
* Find valuations rich at 23x FY18E PE
* Prefer L&T for its exposure to recovery in capex cycle

*BofA ML on Dr Reddy's*
* Upgrade to Buy from Underperform, Target `3930
* Teva's acquired and own complex portfolio to ensure strong pickup in US sales
* Potential re-rating from currently discounted valuations due to 9% expected EPS decline
* Raise our EPS forecasts by 2-11% over FY17-18; 7% above consensus
* Market is undervaluing upside from R&D investments
* 1HFY17E will be weak due to FDA issues and competition in key products

*Citi on Exide*
* Maintain buy, raise target to `196 from `177
* Co undertook initiatives to improve profitability in weak-demand envt
* FY16 margin improvement reflects impact of benign lead prices, cost-reduction efforts
* Lead-costs benefits of FY16 to flow through FY17 too
* Co's CFO ex-working capital has been fairly steady at ~10% of revenues over FY12-15
* 1QFY17 results - margins should be strong driven by weak lead prices
* GST- could make organized players more price competitive vs unorganized players

*Nomura on GSK Pharma*
* Maintain reduce, cut target to `2483 from `2952
* Co trades at 70.1x one-year forward PE and 10x current EV/sales; valuations are rich
* Market expects strong revival in EBITDA margins
* Stock factoring in possible delisting if parent Glaxo Plc buys back remaining shares
* See near-term headwinds from 35% reduction in ceiling prices of largest selling drug, Augmentin
* Expect EBITDA margins to decline by 23 bps in FY17F

*CLSA on Hindalco*
* Maintain buy, raise target to `160 from `140
* Stock has nearly doubled from Feb lows, but believe it still offers significant upside
* Believe India aluminium costs, Novelis' margins could surprise positively in FY17
* Expect balance sheet to see gradual deleveraging with improving FCF
* Upgrade FY17 Ebitda by 5%, forecast strong 17% Ebitda Cagr over next 3 years
* On 2 year view, see a fair value of `205/sh, implying 66% upside

*CLSA on Vedanta*
* Maintain buy, raise target to `166 from `150
* Poised for strong operational turnaround led by improving volume growth in aluminium
* See improvement in power, iron ore businesses as well as falling ali costs
* Commodity prices have recovered from early-2016 lows
* Rising OCF, limited capex should drive strong FCF and deleveraging
* Probability of Cairn merger has risen, should improve cash fungibility, valuation multiples
* Expect strong 20% Ebitda Cagr over FY16-19; raise FY17-19 EPS by 9-26%

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