Thursday, 28 July 2016

Re: {LONGTERMINVESTORS} Research Reports extracts & summaries - Thread

 BOFA ML ON LUPIN

* ANDA from Goa plant will help alleviate investor concerns around the pending Form 483
* Investor concerns were on delay in approvals and launches
* Move may lead to lead to potential re-rating of the stock
Gpa plant accounts for 50% of US supplies; 30% of pending ANDA
* Regulatory overhang over valuations should recede

CS ON LUPIN
* Tentative approval could imply "VAI" flag for Goa plant
* Getting a tentative approval now is incrementally positive
* Factor in goa clearance by FY17-end which is still a realistic scenario
* 15% of CS FY18 eps is contributed by Goa clearance

DB ON TORRENT PHARMA
* Maintain Buy, Target `1672
* No surprises in Q1 but Brazil business outlook improves
* Strong growth in Brazil offset sluggish growth in India
* US base business grew by low double digit aided by gDetrol and gNexium
* Management expects 15-20 ANDA filings and around 10 launches in FY17

CLSA ON TORRENT PHARMA
* Cut target to `1780 from `1860, Maintain Buy
* Trim FY17-18 EPS estimates by 3-4% to reflect Q1 miss
* Brazil, USA strong in 1QFY17 but India growth disappoints
* Core US growth was strong while Brazil turned the corner in 1Q
* R&D spend increased to 6% of sales which should reflect in higher ANDA filings

ISEC ON TORRENT PHARMA
* Raise target to `1748 from `1632, Maintain Buy
* Remain positive on the stock considering its pickup in growth from FY18
* US and India businesses impacted revenue while base business margins strong
* Expect revenue and net profit CAGR of 13.3% and 19.5% over FY16-FY19 ex Abilify

UBS ON JSW STEEL
* Maintain Neutral, Target `1400
* Pricing has been strong, helped by a combination of MIP and higher international prices
* The outlook improved from the lows, but Q2 should be softer
* Management is reasonably confident of achieving the volume guidance of 15mt for FY17
* JSW expects to see a pick-up in demand in H2FY17 with better economic activity

CS ON JSW STEEL
* Raise target to `2000 from `1600, Maintain Outperform
* Strong beat on higher ASP; sales guidance intact; MIP extension likely
* See a low probability of a strong rally in domestic steel prices
* Moderate our FY17 ASPs by ~$30/t on domestic steel prices
* Raise FY17/18 EBITDA by 5-6% and EPS by 2-15%

CS ON HDFC
* Maintain outperform, raise target to `1570 from `1501
* Mgmt expects corporate growth to improve to double digits this year
* Given improving liquidity, softening of bond yields, estimate incremental spreads widening
* Mortgage market pricing continues to remain attractive given lack of rate cuts from banks
* With retail growth momentum robust, HDFC remains well placed to maintain healthy growth
* Cut EPS by 12% for FY17 as likely gains from insurance IPO gets delayed

DB ON HDFC
* Maintain buy, target at `1510
* Growth is gradually improving; see asset quality as stable
* Strong individual AUM growth at +18% YoY, one offs gains used for provision
* Asset quality stable; has sufficient provision to cover contingencies
* Believe there could be some stress in the non-individual loans

CITI ON SHRIRAM TRANSPORT
* Maintain neutral, target at `1210
* Mgmt optimistic on outlook, though more on generic trends than specific ones
* Post a strong ~70% run, mkt likely needs specific data or guidance for new move
* Monsoons, govt investments, scrapping policy (>10 yrs), improving fleet utilization to help
* Potential risks, lack of incremental guidance suggest there's no imminent inflection

DB ON SHRIRAM TRANSPORT
* Maintain buy, raise target to `1420 from `1390
* Growth picking up but NIMs decline; NPLs remain stable
* Believe co will deliver strong earnings growth of CAGR 35% in FY16-18E
* Earnings growth to drive ~400bps RoE expansion to 16% in FY18E
* Valuations at 2.2x FY18E P/B have moved up but are comfortable
* Believe declining rates, good monsoon to result in increasing recoveries
* Forecast an AUM CAGR of ~20% over FY16-18

CS ON ASIAN PAINTS
* MAINTIAN NEUTRAL, TARGET RAISED TO `960 FROM `880
* Asian Paints 1Q17 volumes likely grew by a robust 13-14%
* Gross margin expansion very strong despite 2% price drop in Feb 2016
* Increase 2018E earnings by ~4% from improving volume trends & benign input costs

MS ON ASIAN PAINTS
* Maintain Equalweight, target `875
* With Co. lapping lower input costs, margin expansion likely to narrow from 2Q onwards
* Key positive for quarter was 11-12% volume growth in domestic decorative business
* Raise EPS targets for F17,F18, F19 by 2.0%, 3.0% & 0.7% respectively

NOMURA ON YES BANK
* Maintain buy, raise target to `1385 from `1300
* Key positive is strong momentum on retail franchise with retail loans growing at +70%
* Has delivered well on corporate asset quality, on retail asset/liability franchise
* More self-origination vs. buyout for priority sector, expect NIMs to have positive bias
* Bank remains fairly confident of delivering on its guidance

DB ON YES BANK
* Maintain buy, raise target to `1350 from `1300
* Key highlight of 1Q was strong execution on CASA (+63%), with ratio now at 30%
* Building up distribution, rolling out retail products should result in continued strong growth
* Remain positive on growth outlook, see strong growth of 25% earnings CAGR FY16-19
* Expect FY17 NIM to be higher by 12bps on back of good asset/liability mix
* Expect bank to raise equity in next 3-6 months, given strong growth prospects

DB ON CASTROL INDIA
* MAINTAIN BUY, TARGET 490
* Stronger than expected 2QCY16 results with strong volume growth
* Volumes driven by double digit growth in personal mobility segment & power brands
* Stock trades at 25x CY17E P/E which is below its last 3 yrs' average

DB ON DABUR INDIA
* MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET `310
* Muted volume growth in Staples continues
* Underlying growth likely higher as disruptions in wholesale channel in UP in June
* Product portfolio has high rural bias & current slowdown in rural consumption is a headwind
* Value Dabur at a P/E of 31x FY18E EPS & arrive at target

CITI ON RIL
* Maintain buy, raise target to `1238 from `1205
* Downstream expansions are meaningful and on track, but ignored
* Co expects 4 key core projects to start-up over 2Q-4QFY17
* Expect gradual recovery in GRMs on improved sentiment, high Chinese utilizations
* Recent developments indicate that Jio launch is imminent; expect launch around Sep/Oct
* Concerns on use of cash may be overstated in the near-term

MS ON DABUR INDIA
* MAINTAIN OVERWEIGHT, TARGET `325
* Disappointing Quarter with earnings 2% below estimates
* Key negative for quarter is 4.1% volume growth in domestic FMCG business vs. estimate of ~6%
* Strong performance of toothpaste & honey likely to allay investor concerns on rising competition

BoFA on Bharti Airtel
* Maintain Buy, Target `426
* Risk/reward getting increasingly favorable
* Co well-placed to emerge stronger in both voice and data mrkts
* Limited room for disappointment in Bharti Africa numbers going forward
* A multiple re-rating possible in near-term, due to better core biz & declining concerns about Jio impact

MS on Bharti Airtel
* Maintain Under-weight, Target `294
* Minute-led voice rev growth was partly offset by slower data growth
* RJio's entry in 2H16 will likely increase competitive intensity
* Potential spectrum auctions put earnings at risk as well, imply higher leverage
* Data is the key future growth driver, and hence the biggest concern

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