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[Technical readings carried forward from previous weeks are shown in italics. Readers can easily identify the new arguments which are written in regular font]
Last week we discussed, "recovery of Friday could either be a lower-degree b leg inside a continuing 'b', OR 'c' of the pattern inside the 3rd Corrective … Friday's action formed into Inverted Hammer like candle with an oversized Upper Shadow … reiterated technical resistance usually seen at any gap-down area … Inverted Hammer could carry -ve implication if the action in the fresh week shows follow-up weakness below the bottom of such candle … Friday's action had started with a gap-up … this gap-up remained intact … watch this gap-up area … follow-up weakness below 28454 on Sensex would confirm -ve implications … "
Sensex kept below the Head of Friday's Inverted Hammer, and traded subdued till Wednesday. However, low of the week protected the downside crucial level we mentioned as 28454, as a result of which, Index recovered on Thursday. Retracing part of Thursday's gains on Friday, it finally settled 69 pts or 0.25% higher, forming a High Wave candle for the week. While the Metal/Oil&Gas/Mid-Caps/Realty sectors ended with gains, FMCG/IT ended with losses.
For the first 3 days of the week, i.e. till Wednesday, the movement remained ranged inside the gap-up area below previous Friday's Inverted Hammer candle on downside, and High of Friday's candle on the upside.
Remember, Index had formed an Inverted Hammer candle on previous Friday, and its upper shadow indicated resistance near upper end of the huge gap-down area created on 12th Sep.
On downside, Sensex protected 28454, which was the gap-up area below previous Friday's candle, and holding it encouraged bulls to attempt a recovery on Thursday.
We, remember, marked this level as crucial, only below which -ve implications would have opened.
Index opened with a gap-up on Thursday, and crossed previous Friday's high marginally. The move initially looked like it was breaking the 4-day range. However, Thursday's higher start did not attract any +ve follow-up, and action for the day formed into an indecisive Doji.
Thursday's gap-up open, remember, was on a/c of US Fed and Bank of Japan maintaining status quo on rates, which was considered a +ve news. Once a +ve news is out, traders usually book profits.
As a result, Friday attracted further profit-booking, and the action formed into a Bear candle on the last day of the week.
As seen against the gap-down action inside the previous fall, which we've marked as "b" leg on the charts above, the rally labeled as "c" leg looked "slower". Against 2-3 days consumed by the "b" leg fall, the "c" leg rally took 6-7 days to retrace only 70-75% of the fall.
Thursday's gap-up action covered the huge gap-down area created on 12th Sep. Thursday's move, therefore, cancelled both the gap-down action as well as possibility of "Island Reversal" on the Weekly chart.
If the recovery after 12th Sep is the "c" leg, then the same looks sub-divided into lower-degree a-b-c legs. The action during the first 3 days was part of lower-degree b, and Thursday's up-move was the lower-degree c leg of "c".
This also allows us to draw a 0-b line below the "c" leg. The "c" leg can continue if the 0-b line is protected.
NEoWave students can see the 0-b line we showed earlier for the a-b-c formation inside the "a" leg. Break of 0-b line was 1st stage and faster retracement of c was final stage of confirmation that a-b-c pattern inside "a" leg was over.
Overall, we assumed that Index is forming the 3rd Corrective inside the larger "D" leg we opened upwards from Feb'16, from our last year's target of 22500. We wondered if 3rd Corrective would develop as a Diametric or Triangle.
The "b" leg retraced "less than" 61.8% of "a". Inside a Triangle, each of its leg should retrace "minimum" 50% of preceding leg, but preferably 61.8%. The "b" leg retracing more than 61.8% of "a" would have confirmed "a" as a label-3 Corrective leg, but that did not happen.
We had, therefore, keep both Diametric & Triangle options open for the pattern developing inside the 3rd. However, to confirm the 7-legged Diametric, "c" should also cross the top of "a", i.e. move above this month's high of 29077 (Nifty 8969). If that fails to happen, 3rd may still be forming as a 5-legged Triangle.
Friday's sizable Bear candle indicated failure to confidently cover the gap-down area of 12th Sep. Thursday's action now looked like a tricky breakout from the 4-day range from previous Friday. As per NEoWave, movements inside Triangle can be "tricky", and therefore, one cannot not take a confident view until the pattern in complete.
With lower high-low on Friday, compared to Thursday, the bias turned -ve as per VP's Bias Theory. Follow-up weakness & close below Friday's low would continue the -ve Bias.
On weakness below Friday, Index may test the Yellow 0-b line, which is valued at about 28543 (Nifty 8784) for the first day of the week. So, if Index drops below Friday, watch the 0-b line as a crucial level.
As we argued, "c" can continue to develop as long as it holds above the 0-b line. Break below it, followed by full retracement of c leg of a-b-c, i.e. drop below 28462 (Nifty 8757), would mean the upward "c" leg is over, and a downward "d" leg has opened.
If "d" confirms, then it would be a downward leg which should be a "smaller" fall compared to "b", i.e. it should not break the bottom of "b" at 28251 (Nifty 8688), to justify "Contracting" Triangle in the 3rd Corrective.
Remember, 3rd Corrective is always the last Corrective of any Complex Corrective development involving x-waves. We marked the larger move as "D" leg from Feb'16.
We are into 3rd leg or "c" leg of the last Corrective. Therefore, 2 or 4 more legs, depending on whether a Diametric or Triangle will ultimately develop inside the 3rd, are still pending. In a "contracting" environment, moves could be "tricky".
We have already shown since a month ago, that the Nifty PE ratio is into a "Bubble Territory". Under the circumstances, it would be better to be choosy, and avoid large commitments, and try to play what it available for the short term.
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Generally speaking, whenever there is a huge gap-down action, we cannot rule out some attempt to cover the gap-down area. Such attempt is normally expected within 3-4 days of the gap-down, and same was seen in the latter part of the week.
Last week we argued that 3rd Corrective could develop as 7-legged Diametric or 5-legged Triangle. This was because the 1st as well as 2nd Corrective inside the larger "D" were both Diametric patterns.
By NEoWave, inside a Complex Corrective development (which we are assuming inside "D" from Feb'16), the progression of patterns should be from severe to same or lesser severity.
Thus, if the previous Corrective is a Diametric, then the next Corrective could be a pattern with same severity, i.e. a Diametric, or a pattern with lesser severity like a Triangle.
Zigzag is the most severe a pattern. Flat is considered a pattern with lesser severity compared to Zigzag. However, Triangle is the least severe of all Corrective patterns.
That is why, under NEoWave, a Complex Corrective development, involving x-waves, usually ends with a Triangle in the last Corrective position.
Structurally, we marked the marginal break of the Yellow 0-x line as 2nd x-wave, and opened 3rd Corrective from 29th Aug. The 8-day rally thereafter is now maturing as "a" leg of the 3rd. The fall starting from Friday could be initially assumed as "b" of 3rd.
If 3rd develops as a Diametric, then "b" may not stretch much beyond 2-3 time-wise and 50% retracement level to "a" price-wise. However, if 3rd develops as a Triangle, the "b" leg will most likely retrace more than 50%, and preferably even 61.8% of the "a" leg. As per NEoWave rules, 3 out of 4 retracing legs of the Triangle should retrace minimum 50% of their respective preceding leg.
Inside the larger development from Feb'16, which we considered as "D" leg, we marked a "Diamond-Shaped Diametric" in the 1st Corrective, and a Flat in the "x-wave". The x-wave finished at the Brexit low on 24th Jun, and we had opened an upward 2nd Corrective thereafter.
The first 2 correctives were Diametric patterns. The pattern in the 3rd is not yet clear, but it could be Triangle or Diametric.
We are assuming the larger "D" from Feb'16 is still forming upwards as a Triple Combination involving 2 small x-waves.
We saw that high crossed the top of "B" (Jul'15 high of 28578) marginally. Remember, Nifty had already crossed "B" much earlier on 27th Jul'15. Now Sensex has also followed.
Due to this, the A-B-C-D development from Mar'15 last year is now assumed as a "Neutral" Triangle, instead of "Running Expanding" Triangle we assumed earlier.
Remember, structurally we had already suspected that the development from last year's high of 30025 (Nifty 9119) could be an Expanding or Neutral Triangle.
We, then, opened the "D" leg of this pattern from Feb'16, i.e. from our last year's target level of 22500 (30000 less 25%).
As we explained, if the Sensex actually moves above the top of "B", then the larger structure from Mar'15 could convert from "Running Expanding Triangle" to "Irregular Expanding Triangle" or "Neutral Triangle".
We, remember, have already marked 5-legged Triangle since Mar'15, and observed that "C" was 161.8% of "A". The current development from Feb'16 onwards was marked as "D" leg, which is almost 261.8% of "B" leg, so far.
The "Irregular" variation of Expanding Triangle could carry implications similar to "Running" variation for its "E" leg. In both variations, the downward "e" could achieve 161.8% to 261.8% ratio with the "A" leg.
However, in both the variation "E-Failure" cannot be ruled out. Neutral Triangle, however, is a missing variation of Triangle under Orthodox Wave Theory.
Imagine, if Contracting Triangle is like 1st Extension Impulse, and Expanding Triangle is like 5th Extension Impulse, then Neutral Triangle would be likened to 3rd Extension Impulse.
Neutral Triangle, a discovery under NEoWave, is a 5-legged pattern, just like any other Triangle, but its c-leg is biggest (like 3rd Extension), and a-leg and e-leg tend towards equality.
Going by this logic, in case of Neutral Triangle, we could see "E" (last leg) to be similar to "A" leg. Remember, "A" leg was 3700-pt down-move from Mar'15 to Jun'15. On Nifty, it was about 1175 pts. by magnitude.
So, if the "D" leg ends above "B", then we could only see a limited downside similar to "A" leg, as measured above.
In any case, as we observed, the Nifty PE Ratio is into the "Bubble territory" above 23.50. As we argued, although it may spend some time in this territory, it would be wise to remain extremely selective for the time being.
Overall, Sensex is still trading near the upper Blue channel. Despite that, with higher top higher bottom on both Daily as well as Weekly close-only charts, the up-trend is still intact.
Market, at Sensex and Nifty level, is up 27% from its bottom at our last year's projected downside of 22500 (6825).
Major upside of about 300% on an average was seen in Sugar stocks. Since these are not normally part of Mutual Fund portfolio, MF holders may have seen limited or flat returns.
Sensex closed Jul'16 at 28052, against 28115 level it close 1 year ago in Jul'15. Since MFs' focus is usually on front-line stocks, NAVs could be flat. This is just to emphasize that market has been selective and even tricky.
Having rallied 25-27%, the valuations are very close to Bubble Territory as shown by the Nifty-50 PE Ratio chart we follow. This, remember, is an official NSE data. We mostly follow the NSE data in this regard as BSE data (shown elsewhere in the report) was found technically undependable.
In any case, last time we used this chart was during Jan-Mar'15 period, when the PE Ratio had reached the Bubble territory above 23.50. Sensex shaved off 25% from 30K levels to our target of 22500.
This is not to say that market has peaked already, but it is not in the safe territory for "investors". One should, therefore, chose stocks and sectors more carefully.
The Corrective phase from last year high of Mar'15 is now into 13th month.
Also observe the 2-year cycle of tops and bottoms on the Monthly chart of Sensex shown below. Since 1980's, this cycle shows Index turning every alternate 'March.
These two time parameters does not rule out Index eventually opening a downward "c" of Triangle in the 3rd Corrective OR "E" of Expanding Triangle, and test the recent bottom at our last year target level of Sensex 22500.
As can be seen on the chart below, most of the recent bottoms were confirmed with a higher bottom formation, which, however, retraced the initial rally from the bottom by about 60-80%.
Just before a big rally, remember, Index usually absorbs all the negativity at such a higher bottom.
The "E" of ET can fail. But if it does not, then "E" wave can open disastrous downsides, as much as 161.8% to 261.8% of the "A" leg.
An ET is a 5-legged formation, consisting both falling as well as rising legs showing "Expansion". As can be checked on the chart, "C" was exactly 161.8% of "A" "externally", and 100% "internally". Similarly, "D" has now turned "bigger" than "B" leg price-wise as well as time-wise.
If the ET formation does confirm, then "E" (if it is not a Failure), can be "bigger" than "C" leg.
Overall, we mentioned that the levels of 21300-22500 are crucial on downside because it was the NEoWave "pattern implication" of 60%-70% retracement to the 19-month Triple Combination rally from Aug'13 to Mar'15, as was shown on the following chart. Index did respect the pattern implication and rallied 25%.
The strong bounce came exactly from our last year's target of 22500. This level was imprinted on the mind of the players, and they played it.
This level, remember, was 60% pattern implication for the 19-month long Triple Combination rally from 17449 (Aug'13) to 30025 (Mar'15). The 60% calculated to 22479, and Sensex bounced from 22495. We printed 22500.
However, Index could now be under the influence 8-year cycle of losing 50-60%, and has broken its yearly trajectory since '2012 (refer to relevant chart shown elsewhere in this report).
Under the circumstances, failure to base out, holding 21300-22500 (Nifty 6350-6750), i.e. the 60-70% pattern implication area, could result in an Oct'08 like situation. Budget needs to create a dramatic +ve sentiment to avoid such an eventuality, else …
Over a year ago, we showed performance of Sensex post elections on the chart given below. As shown on the chart, Sensex' performance always remained subdued after non-Congress Govt gets elected.
As we argued, anytime the Sensex dips below 25K during '2016, it would break its Yearly Trajectory. Break of the trajectory could have implications for the coming year. Structurally, it would raise the possibility of the current corrective phase from Mar'15 stretching to 13 months till Apr'16.
Remember, Sensex was also testing the crucial Monthly Base line we showed on the following chart, and the same has been broken.
Prior to '2013, there were two major corrective phases, first during Jan'08 to Mar'09 and second Nov'10 to Dec'11, and both lasted for 13 months, another Fibonacci Number.
Based on these historical numbers for major corrective phases time-wise, it is possible that if the current phase stretches beyond Nov'15, i.e. 8 months, then it can extend to Apr'16, i.e. continue for 13 months.
Last time FIIs sold out was during Oct'07 to Mar'09, when the Index shaved off as much as 63%. FIIs invested Rs.612000 crs after Mar'09, but Dollex-30 showed un-impressive gains during this period, as it is still below its '2008 highs.
Late last year, we expected market to hit a major top during January of this year, based on "January-Topping cycle".
As we showed on the following chart, except during '2006, all the major and minor tops on Sensex occurred in the first quarter of every Calendar Year, for 15 years since '2000.
We also pointed out that market has seen major corrections or profit-booking modes every 2 years ever since '2004.
Except during '2013, when Sensex corrected only 13%, all other corrections saw cuts of either 25-35% (like during '2004, '2006 and '2010) or 50-60% (like during '2008).
The last major profit-booking was during '2013, and in '2015, 2-year cycle of profit-booking was due.
We have been cautioning investors since the beginning of '2015 also because Index had achieved breakout implication of 5-year Ascending Triangle from '2008 to '2013, we showed on the following chart.
The largest leg of the Ascending Triangle was the fall of '2008-09, i.e. about 13000 Sensex points. As per NEoWave, the normal thrust implication out of a Triangle is 100% of the largest leg of the Triangle.
From Aug'13, when the Ascending Triangle got over, Sensex has moved up almost exactly 13000 pts from 17449 to 30025 :
The Sensex top at 30K levels was exactly the Grid level as per VP's Grid Levels System (GLS), which we have been using since last 5 years.
It was also pointed out that Index looked "overstretched" after rallying for 12 quarters, which was a situation similar to major top of '2008.
The 22500 level is also close to previous major tops of '2008 & '2010, and is also the lowest level of "Sensex Trajectory" we showed since beginning of this year. It is also value of the line joining '2003 & '2009 bottoms on Yearly chart of Sensex :
The likely Sensex trajectory for the year '2015 could be provided by the channel shown on the Yearly chart above.
As we saw previously during '1988 to '1994, and again from '2003 to '2007, Sensex' bull phase trajectory is usually contained in 2 parallel lines roughly. Sensex, in the past, maintained its trajectory for 5 years or 7 years, before breaking it.
The current trajectory began from '2012, and '2015 would be 4th year in this trajectory, which could break either during '2017 or '2019, if the past is any indication.
For the year '2015, the trajectory projects 32800 on the upside and 22800 on the downside.
For '2016, however, the lower line is at 25500 as marked.
The current trajectory is at a lower angle (about 30 degrees), as compared to previous 2 trajectories of 1988-94 and 2003-2007. The angle of ascent for both was identical at 60 degrees. The lower angle of current trajectory has been despite heavy FII Inflows and political change.
Technical readings carried forward from previous weeks
The disparity between Sensex and broader market was shown on the comparative chart below.
The broader market outperformed Sensex from Nov'13 onwards, and its out-performance was especially significant from 16th May onwards, the day of Election Results, as can be seen on the chart.
We considered post-Aug'13 development to be F leg of a larger Diametric formation from '2008 onwards as shown on the chart below.
This long-term scenario marking the larger Diametric was published on 6th Feb'12. This Diametric assumption, as was argued, compared well with the 11-year Diametric formation previously seen during '1992 to '2003.
As shown on the chart above, F is the "Expanding" leg of the 7-legged Diametric from '2008. In the previous instance of the Diametric during '1992-'2003 period, F leg had hit new highs during '2000.
In other words, F leg of the diametric making new highs is nothing new. After hitting new highs during '2000, G leg went down till '2003.
We argued for a Diametric development from '2008 onwards because we observed time-similarity within its legs, which is symptomatic of such a pattern. So far, most of the legs, except B and D, have consumed exactly about 13 months.
On the monthly Close-only chart given below, one can see Sensex crossing previous highs, indeed taking their support for reaching further newer highs for the F leg :
We may watch if Sensex shows maturity signs at current levels and starts cracking.
We considered this alternate scenario when Sensex moved above 2008-10 highs. It shows corrective phase from '2008 completing as a 5-legged Ascending Triangle. This scenario can open much higher targets, 30000+ for Sensex.
The 30000+ target is nothing but 100% (+/- 25%) breakout implication of the largest leg of the Triangle.
According to NEoWave, corrective phase should consume more time than the move it is correcting. After the 56-month rally from May'2003 to Jan'2008, Sensex has corrected for 67 month from Jan'2008 to Aug-13, i.e. a larger period as required under NEoWave.
We cannot rule out that a sufficient time-correction is required after any multi-fold rally. As shown below, such time correction can last for as much as 161.8% to 261.8% time ratio to the multi-fold rally.
As for the last multi-fold rally during '1988 to '1992, its correction lasted for 262.8% time ratio, from '1992 to '2003.
We argued in favor of long term consolidation phase beginning '2008 because prior to '2008, Sensex had multiplied 7 times from its '2003 lows. We argued, such multi-fold rally could results into a multi-year consolidation phase. Inside such a phase, even moves reaching new highs are considered its internal part, and not as breakouts.
As we noted, after 11-fold rally during '1988 to '1992, Sensex consolidated for 11 years till '2003 (261.8% time ratio). Within this consolidation, Sensex corrected as much as 30-60% every time it came closer to previous highs or even after hitting new highs.
An ideal "suckers rally" usually involves making a New High. As we can be seen on the chart below, Sensex moved higher than its '1992 highs during '1994 and '1997, but reacted by over 30% both the times.
Later during '2000, it broke 1992/1994/1997 highs, by as much as 1500-1600, only to lose 58% later. After a severe corrective phase lasting from '2000 to '2003, Index broke '2000 high during '2004 by 100 pts, but even then shaved off 30% before the next rally could take place.
All this happened because the 11-year long '1992-2003 phase was a multi-year corrective phase correcting the preceding 11-fold rally from '1988 to '1992.
On the super-cycle degree, we are considering a "Terminal" development since '2003 onwards. The Terminal was suspected because its 1st wave from 2003-2008 was a label-3 "corrective" pattern. (As against a normal label-5 Impulse pattern).
The 2003-2008 rally was internally marked as a corrective pattern called a Running Diametric.
Also, more importantly, it is only inside a Terminal that 2nd wave can be Triangle. (as against this, in a normal Impulse, 2nd wave cannot develop as a Triangle, only 4th can).
Under the circumstances, if our assumed F leg continues beyond 13 months, i.e. beyond Jul-Aug of this year, then we could be forced to consider the current up-move as the 3rd of the Terminal Impulse, as per the Green labels shown above.
The basic NEoWave requirement is that such a corrective phase should consume more time than the move it is correcting. The '1992-2003 corrective phase, remember, continued for a time-ratio of 261.8% to the preceding 4-year rally from '1988 to '1992.
As per Wave Theory, a corrective phase shapes up as 3-legged Flat/Zigzag, 5-legged Triangle or 7-legged Diametric (which basically combines 2 Triangles).
The question, therefore, is whether the corrective phase ended as a 5-legged Triangle in Aug'13, OR it would continue for 2 more legs and form as 7-legged Diametric.
As was shown on the chart below, all the up-down legs from Jan'13 to Aug'13, except "b", consumed exactly 20-25 days, and formed into a 7-legged Diametric (Diamond-Shaped variety).
As per VP's observational rules, all the legs, except "b", of a 7-legged Diametric tend towards time-similarity. Indeed, by reverse logic, when legs begin to be similar in time, the structure is more likely to form as a Diametric.
Similar to the pattern explained above, on one higher degree, we also observed time-similarity from '2008. All the legs, except "b", consumed about 13 months since the year '2008.
The question, now, remains if we continue with the Diametric assumption or complete the post-'2008 development as a 5-legged Triangle. As we have been explaining, we can open possibility of ending the phase as Triangle only if we see strength continuing beyond Jul-Aug of this year.
The market is being moved mainly on a/c of FII buying heavyweights selectively, even as many stocks have been trading near previous lows in the broader market.
Not related to Wave Labels so much on an immediate basis, VP's 30% Principle shows that Sensex is at a risk of 25-30% cut every 2-3 years, ever since '2004, i.e. in the last 9-10 years.
In this period, the 25-30% cut was seen from the tops in May'2004, May'2006, Jan'2008 and Nov'10 so far. The last bottom was during Dec'11.
Appendix : Super-Cycle-degree Wave-scenarios for Sensex
For Super-Cycle-Degree wave-scenario, consider following ASA Long-Term Index. This Index has been created by combining a very old Index compiled by a British advisor (from '1938 to '1945), with RBI Index ('1945 to '1969), F.E Index ('1969 to '1980) and Sensex (thereafter till date).
The wave-count presented shows that the market is into the lower-degree 5th of the SC-degree 3rd or 5th wave.
The detailed wave-count from '1984 onwards can be seen on the Monthly chart given below. The 2-4 line shown on the ASA long-term Chart above, and Monthly chart below, would determine if the post '1984 Impulse is a Super-cycle-degree 3rd or 5th.
Super-Cycle-Degree 3rd (or 5th) began since Nov'84. Its internal 3rd was an "extended" leg, which achieved exactly 261.8% ratio to the 1st on log scale. The Sensex is now forming the 5th Wave, and the same could develop as a "Terminal", because its lower-degree 1st wave from May'03 onwards developed as a Diametric (which is a "corrective" structure, rather than an "impulse"). Within the non-directional legs, 2nd was exactly 61.8% of 1st value-wise, and 161.8% time-wise. The 4th was 38.2% of 3rd value-wise, and 261.8% time-wise.
While the 4th is shown as a 3-legged a-b-c Flat on the monthly chart above. Alternatively, the 4th is shown as a 7-legged a-b-c-d-e-f-g Bow-Tie Diametric on the Monthly chart below. The chart below also shows 11-year parallel channel from Apr'1992 to May'2003. As shown, if one projects the width of this channel on upper side, such a projection gave 20000 as the "minimum" target. This forecast was achieved.
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As mentioned above, the lower-degree 1st from May'2003 to Jan'2008 appears to be a Bow-Tie Diametric, marked as a-b-c-d-e-f-g. It is called "Diametric" because it combines two Triangular patterns, one initially "Contracting" up to the "d" leg, followed by an "Expanding" one. The contraction point is the "d" leg, and the legs on either sides of it tend to be equal. Accordingly, "c" and "e" were equal in "log scale", both showing about 60% gains. Similarly, "g" was equal to "a", both showing about 115% gain.
The Diametric development from '2003 to '2008 is considered to be the 1st wave of the Impuse. Due to the corrective structure in the 1st leg, the higher-degree 5th could be developing as a Terminal. Since '2008, we are into its 2nd wave, which could continue to develop over a period of 7-8 years beginning '2008.
As per NEoWave, break of 2-4 line confirms a Terminal development, and If the 5th proves to be a Terminal, the Super-Cycle-degree label of 3rd will have to change to 5th, because only a 5th of a 3rd cannot be a Terminal. Only a 5th of the 5th can be a Terminal. The Super-Cycle-Degree marking for 1st and 2nd as shown on ASA long-term chart, would then change to 3rd and 4th respectively.
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