Thursday, 1 September 2016

Re: {LONGTERMINVESTORS} RELIANCE INDUSTRIES... thread....

CLSA ON JIO LAUNCH: ET NOW
* Cut Bharti Airtel's target to `398 from `440, Maintain Buy
* Cut Idea target to `79 from `94, Maintain Sell
* Jio's higher-Arpu plans offer a 12-47% discount to Bharti's comparable data plans
* Lower our FY17-18 Ebitda estimates for Bharti Airtel by 3-5%, EPS by 9 - 16%
* Lower our FY17-18 Ebitda estimates for Idea by 2-4%, EPS by 13 - 19%
* Key for Jio will be subscriber retention beyond free offers

JEFFERIES ON JIO LAUNCH: ET NOW
* Launch is disruptive due to voice being made free, cuts on data pricing
* Disruptive changes would create pressure on incumbents on multiple fronts
* Data pricing at a 29-54% discount to current blended realizations across operators
* Plans have been cleverly designed to first increase adoption then migrate to high ARPU plan
* Market share loss to R Jio imminent given its strategy
* Price decline could accelerate the data realization decline by ~8-10 quarters
* Idea remains at a greater risk given its smaller size and lesser spectrum holding

JP MORGAN ON JIO LAUNCH: ET NOW
* Stock should now more closely track physical ramp up of these various projects
* The tariff element is clear, now we move to opex and subscriber additions

CS ON JIO LAUNCH: ET NOW
* `149 plan is right in the mass market segment for Jio
* Our initial impression is that this may not be the final tariff offers
* Incumbents will have ample time to match post 1st Jan 2017
* Suspect a new set of tariffs could be announced closer to Jan
* Jio's launch has been one of our key worries for past few years
* We continue to stay cautious on space

UBS ON JIO LAUNCH: ET NOW
* RJio entry to expand mobile data revenue pie
* 4G addressable market is currently around 5% of India's mobile users
* Share price weakness of Airtel & Idea offer excellent opportunity for investors

BOFA ON JIO LAUNCH: ET NOW
* Jio launch is positive for Bharti Infratel and negative for inumbents
* 2-6% increase in FY17-19 EPS for Bharti Infratel due to Jio deal
* Expect consensus downgrades on Bharti and Idea on back of Jio plans
* 149 offer will appeal to the voice only consumers who will be able to make free voice calls
* Market was not expecting Jio to aggressively target the low end market

DB ON JIO LAUNCH: ET NOW
* Price fall is a buying opportunity for Bharti and Idea shars
* Jio unlikely to impact the revenue table of the sector
149 plan is in line with current price points prevalent in the industry
* 500 plan is significantly higher than the industry ARPU of around Rs 200
* Night time data plan is likely matched by the incumbents
* Unlimited voice is the killer app which will attract  low to mid-end users
* Bharti already offers unlimited voice for its high-end post-paid plans

 

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