Wednesday, 3 February 2016

{LONGTERMINVESTORS} CCL Products-After a FH15 Bravado, Mgt Shifts Revenue To FY17; Deserves a Single Digit PE

CCL Products or CCL reported a decline in revenue by 11.8% to Rs213cr,  16.5%/15.2%  lower  than  our/BBG  estimate,  respectively.  Standalone  operations fell down by 6% to Rs161cr as against our estimate of Rs170cr  and Vietnam operations declined 25.7% to Rs52cr against our estimate of  Rs85cr.  Revenue  declined  mainly  because  of  the  fall  in  green  coffee  prices, partial shutdown of Indian plant in December 2015, deferment of  export incentives to the tune of ~Rs14cr and rescheduling of contracts by  customers following changes in global economic environment.   With  lower  green  coffee  prices,  gross  margin  at  domestic/Vietnam  operations  rose  169bps/1,933bps  to  42.1%/48.4%,respectively,while  consolidated gross margin rose 653bps to 43.6%.   Despite  higher  power  cost  and  Other  expenses,  operating  margin  improved 255bps because of fall in raw material prices and increase in the  share of value‐added products. Following lower revenue, operating profit  was flat YoY at Rs46cr. With healthy cash flow and lower debt, interest  costs declined 19% to Rs3cr. Net profit was flat at Rs26cr, 25.2%/15.3%  below our/BBG.    The management stated that consolidated EBITDA will be ~Rs195cr and  PAT‐level  growth  will  be  at  least  25%  for  FY16E  excluding  export  incentives to be received from the government.    We  have  reduced  our  FY16/FY17/FY18  revenue  estimates  by  12.5%/7%/6%  to  Rs864cr/Rs1,094cr/Rs1,366cr,  respectively,  and  PAT  estimates  by  17.6%/11.9%/9.3%  to  Rs116cr/Rs161cr/Rs222cr,  respectively. We maintain our BUY rating with a reduced target price of  Rs301 (based on 18x FY18E) from earlier Rs369 (based on 20x FY18E). 

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "LONGTERMINVESTORSRESEARCH" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to longterminvestorsresearch+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/longterminvestorsresearch.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

No comments:

Post a Comment